HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

Osbert Tang is an equity analyst with over 20 years of experience with focuses on China transport, infrastructure, industrials and utilities sectors. He has been based in Shanghai since 2003, accumulated nearly 20 years of on-ground knowledge on the Chinese economy and financial markets, and has a wealth of contacts with China corporates and government entities. 

Osbert has received votes from top-tier institutional investors and has been a highly-ranked transport and infrastructure analyst in the Asiamoney, Institutional Investors and Greenwich surveys. In addition to his extensive experience with international investment banks including RBS, ABN AMRO (both served as Shanghai Chief Representative), Paribas Asia Equity, Maybank Kim Eng and DBS Securities, he has been a senior analyst with Moody’s Investors Service with focus on ratings of China infrastructure and related LGFV issuers. He has also worked in the area of strategic development at Sun Hung Kai Properties Limited. 

Osbert holds a BBA from the Chinese University of Hong Kong, an MBA from the University of Texas at Austin and a MSSc in Applied Psychology from the City University of Hong Kong. He was accredited with the CFA charter in 1997, and is a member of both British Psychological Society and Hong Kong Psychological Society.

Orient Overseas Intl (316 HK): Is It Time for a Reversal?

Orient Overseas Intl (316 HK): Spotting Initial Signs of Recovery

HK Strategy: What Are the Winners if US Hike Rates Instead of Cut?

China's Export Outlook 2023: How Port, Shipping and Logistics Fare?

China Shipping Sector: Impacts of the Termination of 2M Alliance

Orient Overseas Intl (316 HK): Don't Overlook the Downhill Risks

Equity Bottom-Up

Orient Overseas International / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>We believe the 11.4% decline in share price of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/orient-overseas-international" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:801:1" rel="noopener">Orient Overseas International (316 HK)</a> YTD is not sufficient to reflect the plunge in freight rate and weakened load performance.</li>
<li>Its 4Q22 average revenue/TEU of US$1,822.3 has returned to 2Q21 level; but with latest spot rate already plunged to early-2020 times, there is further downside for OOIL's realised rate.</li>
<li>Export outlook is uninspiring as well, indicating pressure on demand. With similar ROE, OOIL only trades at 0.3x P/B in FY20, that makes its current P/B of 0.9x expensive.</li>
</ul>


We believe the 11.4% decline in share price of Orient Overseas International (316 HK) YTD is not sufficient to reflect the plunge in freight rate and weakened load performance.
Its 4Q22 average revenue/TEU of US$1,822.3 has returned to 2Q21 level; but with latest spot rate already plunged to early-2020 times, there is further downside for OOIL's realised rate.
Export outlook is uninspiring as well, indicating pressure on demand. With similar ROE, OOIL only trades at 0.3x P/B in FY20, that makes its current P/B of 0.9x expensive.


Orient Overseas Intl (316 HK): Still Not Too Late to Be Bearish