OPAP - Forecasts held as it emerges from lockdown

OPAP’s Q120 results showed the initial impacts of the COVID-19 outbreak, with revenue declining by 17.1% as the company’s physical locations began to close from 14 March. Since gradually re-opening in May, OPAP has seen a steady recovery, albeit not back to pre-lockdown levels, and encouragingly, management expects to be EBITDA positive in Q220, likely to be the financial period most affected by lockdowns in Greece and Cyprus. As a result, we retain our underlying forecasts, which incorporate a decline in revenue of c 20% for the remainder of FY20. The share price has recovered from the lows in March, such that the EV/EBITDA for FY21e is now 8.4x.