OPAP - Caution following ‘encouraging’ recovery

OPAP’s Q220 results were heavily affected by the COVID-19 closures, with a revenue (GGR) decline of 53.2%. As expected, costs were well managed so that EBITDA profitability was restored by the end of the period and free cash flow generation improved on a relative basis. Post lockdown, the overall recovery was described as ‘encouraging’, but management reiterates a cautious outlook for the rest of the year given the macroeconomic uncertainties and re-emergence of COVID-19 in parts of the country. We make small changes to our assumptions, which result in similar EBITDA for FY20 to before and a modest downgrade of 3% in FY21. Our DCF continues to suggest a value of at least €9.5/share.