Asia Economist and CEO, Centennial Asia Advisors

Manu Bhaskaran

Mr. Bhaskaran is a leading Asian economist based in Singapore with more than 30 years of experience in studying economic, political and security issues that shape the business environment in Asia. He co-ordinates the Asian business of Washington DC-based strategic advisory firm, Centennial Group, directing its Asian economic research practice which provides in-depth analysis of macro trends in Asia. He works extensively with investment institutions, government agencies and corporations. Mr. Bhaskaran regularly presents his views on the economic, political and business environment in Asia at business conferences and in-house briefings. He has conducted studies on a wide range of subjects including: consumer finance in Asia; Asian integration; regional and country-specific political and economic outlooks; the Impact of China on Asia; portfolio capital flows in emerging markets, amongst many others. He is as a member of the Regional Advisory Group for Asia and the Pacific of the International Monetary Fund. Mr. Bhaskaran is a regular columnist for The Edge (Singapore) and holds positions in think tanks including being Adjunct Senior Research Fellow at the Institute of Policy Studies (IPS); Vice President of the Economics Society of Singapore, and Council Member of the Singapore Institute of International Affairs (SIIA). Mr. Bhaskaran serves on the boards of CIMB Investment Bank and Japfa Limited.

Asia Economist and CEO

Lower Oil Prices Will Benefit Most of Asia

Centennial Asia Advisors

At Centennial Asia Advisors, we tell it like it is. We have no vested interests, no need for a China wall, and no reason to skew our outlook any other way. With over 30 years experience covering Asia’s political economy, you can be sure our conclusions and analyses are based on the unadulterated facts. Through years of fine-tuning our research methodologies, we deliver a quality of macroeconomic analysis few other houses can match.

Centennial Asia Advisors is an independent research and advisory firm that works with governments, multilateral institutions, financial firms and leading MNCs.

Economic Policy and Strategic Advisors

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>There are clear supply-demand underpinnings for the renewed decline in oil prices. The resilience of US shale oil production is laying to waste OPEC’s efforts to curb production. However, the geopolitical landscape remains fragile and should tensions erupt, this will cause the risk premium on oil to spike.</li><li>Should the risk premium on oil spike, the energy weights in CPI baskets suggest that Malaysia, Indonesia, Thailand and India relatively stand at greater risk of upward inflationary pressures from higher oil prices.</li></ul>

There are clear supply-demand underpinnings for the renewed decline in oil prices. The resilience of US shale oil production is laying to waste OPEC’s efforts to curb production. However, the geopolitical landscape remains fragile and should tensions erupt, this will cause the risk premium on oil to spike.Should the risk premium on oil spike, the energy weights in CPI baskets suggest that Malaysia, Indonesia, Thailand and India relatively stand at greater risk of upward inflationary pressures from higher oil prices.

Oil Prices: Lower for Longer, Who Wins in Asia?