Financials & FinTech research, Galliano’s Financials Research

Victor Galliano

Victor Galliano is an experienced equity banks analyst, having covered Latin America banks and non-bank financials for over 12 years, as well as more recently covering the Italian banks. He has worked in sell side equity research for 30 years in a career spanning Barclays, HSBC, BBVA LatInvest, Barings and NatWest.
Galliano's Financials Research provides fundamental research in Emerging Markets financials, including FinTech, as well as financials in select Developed Markets.
The investment style applied is generally value oriented, although Growth At Reasonable Price (GARP) strategies can also be used where appropriate. Our investment research approach aim is often contrarian, looking to capitalise on overly sceptical or optimistic consensus views. In terms of valuation techniques, the focus is on PBV ratio to ROE, PE multiples and dividend yield, as well as the application of PEG ratios and, where appropriate, Sum of the Parts (SOTP) valuations.

Financials & FinTech research

EM and DM Neobanks in 2023; Selective Opportunity Driven by Bottom-Up Execution

December Brazil Bank Data in Charts – Household and SME NPL Metrics Are the Focus Points

Inter & Co (INTR US) – No More StoneCo Stake Overhang, but the Fundamental Outlook Remains Tough

October Brazil Bank Data in Charts – Credit Quality Early Warning Trends More Mixed This Month

Brazilian Presidential Election; What Could a Lula Victory Mean for Financials and Fintech?

Battle Lines Drawn As BABA Builds Out First/Last-Mile Capacity; But Who Will Fund 75+ Bn CNY CapEx?

Financials & FinTech, EM & Developed Markets

Galliano’s Financials Research

Galliano's Financials Research provides fundamental research in Emerging Markets financials, including FinTech, as well as financials in select Developed Markets.

The investment style applied is generally value oriented, although Growth At Reasonable Price (GARP) strategies can also be used where appropriate. 

Our investment research approach aim is often contrarian, looking to capitalise on overly sceptical or optimistic consensus views. In terms of valuation techniques, the focus is on PBV ratio to ROE, PE multiples and dividend yield, as well as the application of PEG ratios and, where appropriate, Sum of the Parts (SOTP) valuations.

Equity Bottom-Up

Banco Santander Brasil  / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>In November most consumer NPL ratio categories, except credit cards, worsened with corporate delinquencies, especially in micro and SME, also deteriorating; the system NPL ratio is approaching its pre-pandemic high</li>
<li>System loan growth continues to decelerate; +14.7% for the twelve months to November is a further reduction from the October rate (+15.7%), due to slower corporate and consumer loan growth</li>
<li>New system credit spreads rose further MoM, and we expect average loan spreads to remain elevated into 2023; we favour Banco do Brasil, and are cautious on Santander Brasil</li>
</ul>


In November most consumer NPL ratio categories, except credit cards, worsened with corporate delinquencies, especially in micro and SME, also deteriorating; the system NPL ratio is approaching its pre-pandemic high
System loan growth continues to decelerate; +14.7% for the twelve months to November is a further reduction from the October rate (+15.7%), due to slower corporate and consumer loan growth
New system credit spreads rose further MoM, and we expect average loan spreads to remain elevated into 2023; we favour Banco do Brasil, and are cautious on Santander Brasil


November Brazil Bank Data in Charts – Household and Corporate NPL Metrics Broadly Worsening