Chief Economist, Heteronomics

Phil Rush

Philip Rush is the Founder and Chief Economist of Heteronomics. Until launching in November 2016, he was Nomura's Senior European Economist and was the Chief UK Economist there since 2010. Before that, he was UK Economist at Barclays Wealth, where he also developed strategic asset allocation models for their market return portfolios. Philip started his career at Lehman Brothers covering the UK, Scandinavian and Swiss economies. A book on his fundamental framework was published in January 2018 as "Real Market Economics".

Chief Economist

FX Weekly Strategy: G10, September 16th-20th

FX Weekly Strategy: September 30th - October 4th

Heteronomics

Heteronomics represents a different kind of economics. We believe analysis should delve into the details of what is really going on, rather than using overly simplistic assumptions to quick-sell stories. Independence from myopic institutional pressures allows us to focus on the realities underlying your asset allocation decisions, without the conflicts of the old market structures. Heteronomics targets the themes driving UK asset prices, offering the benefits of depth, independence and ultimately price.

UK-centric macro research

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>As expected, the policy rate was increased from zero to 0.25%, with a second hike signalled for December. The new rate projection is even higher than we expected.</li>
<li>Relaxing Covid rules led to a brisk economic upswing, with mainland GDP at new highs. Underlying CPI-ATE inflation has drifted down, but changes in indirect taxes and substantial energy price volatility have caused CPI and CPI-ATE to diverge.</li>
<li>The Norges Bank has produced multiple upgrades to policy rate projections during 2021 and signalled a series of rate increases well ahead of their G10 peers. Risks skew towards disappointment, but that more threatens rate changes beyond Dec-21.</li>
</ul>


As expected, the policy rate was increased from zero to 0.25%, with a second hike signalled for December. The new rate projection is even higher than we expected.
Relaxing Covid rules led to a brisk economic upswing, with mainland GDP at new highs. Underlying CPI-ATE inflation has drifted down, but changes in indirect taxes and substantial energy price volatility have caused CPI and CPI-ATE to diverge.
The Norges Bank has produced multiple upgrades to policy rate projections during 2021 and signalled a series of rate increases well ahead of their G10 peers. Risks skew towards disappointment, but that more threatens rate changes beyond Dec-21.


Norway: Norges Bank Leads the G10 Pack