Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

HK Type 4 license through Ballingal Investment Advisors Ltd. ("BIA" or "BIAL")

BACKGROUND
I have 20+yrs experience in Asia doing alternative strategies (i.e. non-delta1 non long-only) in fixed income, equity derivatives, and activist/catalyst/event-driven and long-short equity strategies with most of that time spent managing money. 

4 years in fixed income macro, 8 years running internal hedge fund and 4yrs investment banking at Citi in Japan, 3 years running an Asia multi-strat portfolio at a hedge fund, 4+yrs as an independent special situations analyst.

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Nomura Research Institute ToSTNeT-3 Buyback

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<p>Yesterday <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nomura-research-institute-lt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18129:1">Nomura Research Institute Lt (4307 JP)</a> announced a Tender Offer to buy back 101.9mm shares for ¥160 billion. Those who know the stock know that price doesn't work, but it does when the Tender Offer is scheduled to start July 1 after a 3:1 stock split executed at the end of this month.</p><p>It is a big buyback, at 13.52% of shares.  And it is a Tender Offer, so as is my wont, I have some thoughts. First and foremost: it's not for you.</p><p>The tender offer is going to be launched at ¥1570/share which was a 9.25% discount to yesterday's split-adjusted close of ¥1730. That would give investors a free put option but there are other reasons why it won't work for the vast majority of investors even should the stock plummet.</p><p>In many buybacks, there is a market impact. Not here. </p><p>In many situations where the erstwhile one-time parent sells down a stake, it increases the float. Not here. </p><p>But this situation IS interesting. On a pro-forma basis it leads to a net debt position for the company for only the second time in its listed history (the first being during the GFC).</p><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/090/608/original/Screenshot%202019-06-19%20at%2011.33.02%20AM.png?1560915201" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="90608"></figure><div class="content-caption">data source: capitalIQ, Quiddity</div><p></p><p></p><hr><div style="text-align: left;" class="content-caption"><em>For other insights on Japanese Tender Offers please check the list of Japan-related Event-Driven insights <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights?collection=all-insights&amp;filters=countries%3AJapan%7Cverticals%3A29" target="_blank">here</a>. As a reference to Japan M&amp;A rules and practices, and rules regarding Tender Offers, please see the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/quiddity-japan-m-a-guide-2019" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:28911">Quiddity Japan M&amp;A Guide 2019</a>.</em></div>

Yesterday Nomura Research Institute Lt (4307 JP) announced a Tender Offer to buy back 101.9mm shares for ¥160 billion. Those who know the stock know that price doesn't work, but it does when the Tender Offer is scheduled to start July 1 after a 3:1 stock split executed at the end of this month.It is a big buyback, at 13.52% of shares.  And it is a Tender Offer, so as is my wont, I have some thoughts. First and foremost: it's not for you.The tender offer is going to be launched at ¥1570/share which was a 9.25% discount to yesterday's split-adjusted close of ¥1730. That would give investors a free put option but there are other reasons why it won't work for the vast majority of investors even should the stock plummet.In many buybacks, there is a market impact. Not here. In many situations where the erstwhile one-time parent sells down a stake, it increases the float. Not here. But this situation IS interesting. On a pro-forma basis it leads to a net debt position for the company for only the second time in its listed history (the first being during the GFC).data source: capitalIQ, QuiddityFor other insights on Japanese Tender Offers please check the list of Japan-related Event-Driven insights here. As a reference to Japan M&amp;A rules and practices, and rules regarding Tender Offers, please see the Quiddity Japan M&amp;A Guide 2019.

Nomura Research Tender Buyback - 14% Additional EPS Accretion