Delivering Global Macro Investment Insights

DeSaque Macro Research

DeSaque Macro Research Limited was formed by Said DeSaque in April 2012 with the view to delivering global macro investment insights aimed at providing new ideas to clients.

Said DeSaque has over 26 years of experience working as a professional economist in financial services. Prior to establishing DeSaque Macro Research, Said held positions as Senior Economist at Robert W Baird and William Blair. He began his career as a graduate at PaineWebber in 1986, where he eventually became Head of the London Economics Department.

Said takes a very keen interest in international relations, along with their implications for economic development. His research interests include the economic transformation of China and its implications for global capital markets, particularly in the United States. He is a member of Chatham House in London.

The US economy and capital markets have historically been Said’s main focus of attention. He frequently presents his views to institutional investors in diverse geographic locations. In recent years, Said has also been carefully monitoring economic developments in Asia, particularly China and Japan.

Global Economist, DeSaque Macro Research

Said Desaque

Global Economist

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>Foreign banks' reliance on commercial paper in the US has contributed to a much bigger compression in their net interest margins, contributing to fears that dollar deleveraging could be imminent.</li>
<li>US current account deficits produced large dollar outflows that facilitated offshore funding centres. The end of secular disinflation and arrival of structurally higher interest rates could create gradual dollar deleveraging.</li>
<li>Fed policy conduct is crucial to gradual deleveraging , particularly quantitative tightening's impact on corporate bond yields. Dollar exchange rate movements in 2023 are inconsistent with major dollar deleveraging.</li>
</ul>


Foreign banks' reliance on commercial paper in the US has contributed to a much bigger compression in their net interest margins, contributing to fears that dollar deleveraging could be imminent.
US current account deficits produced large dollar outflows that facilitated offshore funding centres. The end of secular disinflation and arrival of structurally higher interest rates could create gradual dollar deleveraging.
Fed policy conduct is crucial to gradual deleveraging , particularly quantitative tightening's impact on corporate bond yields. Dollar exchange rate movements in 2023 are inconsistent with major dollar deleveraging.


No Signs of Major Dollar Deleveraging, but Fed Policy Conduct and Inflation Backdrop Warrant Caution