Global Multi-Asset Investment Strategist, True Insights

Jeroen Blokland

All-round Multi-Asset investor. Former head of a EUR 5 billion multi-asset fund range. Speaker. Charts & Frameworks. Founder of True Insights, a provider of independent investment research, trade ideas & well-diversified portfolios.
https://true-insights.net/

Global Multi-Asset Investment Strategist

Money Supply-Driven Excess Liquidity Unveils 20% S&P 500 Downside Blog

Inflation Watch: 7 Charts on EUR Inflation After Smoking Hot Prints from Spain and France

Inflation Watch - Further Downside to US CPI Consensus

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Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>Eurozone M1 Money Supply growth turned negative for the first time in history in January, triggering a wave of deflation forecasts.</li>
<li>But looks can be deceiving. The relationship between Money Supply growth and Headline and Core inflation is far from perfect, with just one-third of CPI variation explained.</li>
<li>The recent inflation stickiness substantiates the hypothesis that other factors are at work and that the ECB must continue hiking until it breaks something, most likely the economy.</li>
</ul>


Eurozone M1 Money Supply growth turned negative for the first time in history in January, triggering a wave of deflation forecasts.
But looks can be deceiving. The relationship between Money Supply growth and Headline and Core inflation is far from perfect, with just one-third of CPI variation explained.
The recent inflation stickiness substantiates the hypothesis that other factors are at work and that the ECB must continue hiking until it breaks something, most likely the economy.


‘No,’ Money Supply Growth Is Not Your Ultimate Inflation Forecaster