Japan/Asia Long-Short, LightStream Research

Mio Kato

Over 15 years analysing Japanese and Asian stocks from a long/short perspective

I focus on cyclically driven sectors such as Gaming, Factory Automation and Autos

An eclectic background as a long-short analyst, upper management at a financial data startup through its listing, and as the founder of a team analysing big/alternative data, all of which supports independent and differentiated views... we hope

An appreciation for Mathematics drives the development of a "Micro-Quantamental" process which can provide a data-driven, historically-informed and semi-automated foundation upon which to layer more qualitative and judgemental analysis, thus improving investment decision-making speed and accuracy

Japan/Asia Long-Short

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Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Bottom-Up

Nissan reported 1QFY22 results on Wednesday generating revenue of ¥2,008bn (-21.1% QoQ, +71% YoY) and OP of ¥75.7bn (for an OPM of 3.8% compared to OPM of -13.5% and -0.9% respectively in 1QFY21 and 4QFY21). The improvement of Nissan’s profitability compared to its previous quarter was mainly due decreases in SG&amp;A expenses which were 12.8% of revenue compared to 15.1% and 21.9% respectively in 1QFY21 and 4QFY21. The reported revenue was 6.5% higher than consensus estimates while OP beat by ¥130bn, thanks in large part to the finance business.<table class="table table-striped"><tbody>
<tr>
<td style="width: 42.76%;">In ¥bn</td>
<td style="width: 19.7%;">Revenue </td>
<td style="width: 17.84%;">OP</td>
<td style="width: 19.7%;">OPM</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 42.76%;">Actual Results - 1QFY22</td>
<td style="width: 19.7%;">2,008</td>
<td style="width: 17.84%;">              76</td>
<td style="width: 19.7%;">3.8%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 42.76%;">Consensus - 1QFY22</td>
<td style="width: 19.7%;">1,886</td>
<td style="width: 17.84%;">-            55</td>
<td style="width: 19.7%;">-2.9%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 42.76%;">Surprise</td>
<td style="width: 19.7%;">6.5%</td>
<td style="width: 17.84%;">NM</td>
<td style="width: 19.7%;">6.7% points</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 42.76%;"> </td>
<td style="width: 19.7%;"> </td>
<td style="width: 17.84%;"> </td>
<td style="width: 19.7%;"> </td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 42.76%;">Guidance - FY22</td>
<td style="width: 19.7%;">9,750</td>
<td style="width: 17.84%;">150</td>
<td style="width: 19.7%;">1.5%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 42.76%;">Consensus - FY22</td>
<td style="width: 19.7%;">          9,114</td>
<td style="width: 17.84%;">            4.6</td>
<td style="width: 19.7%;">0.1%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 42.76%;">Difference</td>
<td style="width: 19.7%;">7.0%</td>
<td style="width: 17.84%;">3183%</td>
<td style="width: 19.7%;">1.5% points</td>
</tr>
</tbody></table><div style="text-align: left;" class="content-caption">Source: Company disclosures, CapIQ</div>

Nissan reported 1QFY22 results on Wednesday generating revenue of ¥2,008bn (-21.1% QoQ, +71% YoY) and OP of ¥75.7bn (for an OPM of 3.8% compared to OPM of -13.5% and -0.9% respectively in 1QFY21 and 4QFY21). The improvement of Nissan’s profitability compared to its previous quarter was mainly due decreases in SG&amp;A expenses which were 12.8% of revenue compared to 15.1% and 21.9% respectively in 1QFY21 and 4QFY21. The reported revenue was 6.5% higher than consensus estimates while OP beat by ¥130bn, thanks in large part to the finance business.

In ¥bn
Revenue 
OP
OPM


Actual Results - 1QFY22
2,008
              76
3.8%


Consensus - 1QFY22
1,886
-            55
-2.9%


Surprise
6.5%
NM
6.7% points


 
 
 
 


Guidance - FY22
9,750
150
1.5%


Consensus - FY22
          9,114
            4.6
0.1%


Difference
7.0%
3183%
1.5% points

Source: Company disclosures, CapIQ

Nissan Motor – Dependant on Its Finance Business