European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Jesús is an Insight Provider (Event-driven) on the Smartkarma network, where he looks across sectors at opportunities arising from securities mispricing (both credit and equity), share classes, bid announcements, prospective bids, and special situations. He has served as Economic and Business Advisor at the Spanish Congress in Madrid. Prior to that, he has worked in the City of London: as a Credit Analyst at Bloomberg; Event-driven associate at former boutique European Research; and doubled as Special Situations and Equity-linked VP (convertible bonds) at Merrill Lynch. Jesús has an MBA from the London Business School, a BA (Hons.) degree in Economics from the Complutense University in Madrid, and a BA (Hons.) in Law from U.N.E.D., also in Madrid.

Nippon Steel/United States Steel Corp: Knock-Out Offer

Potential Consequences of the U.S. Presidential Election on North America M&A

Nippon Steel/US Steel: Appealing Expected Value

Nippon Steel/United States Steel Corp: Valuation

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Nippon Steel's $14.9 billion acquisition bid for U.S. Steel, announced in December 2023, faced regulatory resistance and was blocked by the Biden administration over national security concerns.</li>
<li>U.S. Steel’s Big River Steel 2 expansion will double capacity to 6.3 million tons by 2026, contributing over 50% of EBITDA and supporting enhanced free cash flow generation.</li>
<li>Despite the failed merger, U.S. Steel’s intrinsic value, supported by a $39.75 fair value estimate, easing capex, and reshoring tailwinds, offers a ~19% upside from the $33.30 closing price.</li>
</ul>


Nippon Steel's $14.9 billion acquisition bid for U.S. Steel, announced in December 2023, faced regulatory resistance and was blocked by the Biden administration over national security concerns.
U.S. Steel’s Big River Steel 2 expansion will double capacity to 6.3 million tons by 2026, contributing over 50% of EBITDA and supporting enhanced free cash flow generation.
Despite the failed merger, U.S. Steel’s intrinsic value, supported by a $39.75 fair value estimate, easing capex, and reshoring tailwinds, offers a ~19% upside from the $33.30 closing price.


Nippon Steel/US Steel: Deal Blocked but Offering Robust Standalone Value