Japanese Turnaround Situations, Short-Ideas, Azabu Research

Michael Allen

Michael Allen is a representative director of Azabu Research, an independent research company focused on turnaround situations in the Japanese stock market. He has covered Japanese stocks for more than 30 years in both sell-side and buy-side roles and is fluent in both written and spoken Japanese.  He holds a degree in international studies from the University of Pacific, and certificates in corporate governance from both the Board Director Training Institute of Japan and the Wharton School of Business.

Japanese Turnaround Situations, Short-Ideas

NextAge (3186):  Disruptive Business Model at Massive Discount

Nextage (3186 JP): Long-Term Potential Not Yet Discounted

Azabu Research

Azabu Research is a publishing and consulting firm focused on distressed equities in the Japanese market. We specialize in turnaround strategies, corporate combinations, divestitures, and restructuring.

Publisher of the Tokyo Turnaround Letter, which conducts the most thorough research possible of publicly available information, including forensic tests for fraudulent overstatement of assets and understatement of liabilities, as well as rigorous market and industry analysis to assess the underlying strengths of the company’s products or services, the appropriateness of the company’s turnaround strategy, and the skill of its current management team. The average length of a report exceeds 25 pages of text and tables, excluding any disclosures or executive summaries.

We have more than 30 years of experience in applying this process to distressed equities in Japan. Additionally, subscribers have free access to detailed, yet easily navigated earnings models for the target company as well as the top five comparable companies, and unlimited access to the analyst for follow-up questions.

Azabu Research also conducts be-spoke research on a project basis, and provides consulting services to companies looking to restructure, divest, make acquisitions, go public, or improve investor sentiment toward their stock.

Independent Research and Consulting Firm

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Sales per outlet and gross margin per vehicle were supposed to rise in Q3. Instead, both went south, causing management to lower FY guidance about 50%. </li>
<li>Evidence from the 1st and 2nd quarters that indicated an immanent turnaround simply vanished in the 3rd quarter. </li>
<li>We lower our rating form “Massive Growth at Huge Discount” to “Decent Growth at Reasonable Price, No immanent catalyst.”</li>
</ul>


Sales per outlet and gross margin per vehicle were supposed to rise in Q3. Instead, both went south, causing management to lower FY guidance about 50%. 
Evidence from the 1st and 2nd quarters that indicated an immanent turnaround simply vanished in the 3rd quarter. 
We lower our rating form “Massive Growth at Huge Discount” to “Decent Growth at Reasonable Price, No immanent catalyst.”


Nextage Co Ltd

NextAge (3186): What Went Wrong?