Pharma/ Biotechnology Investments Specialist, Vasuda Capital Management

Dr. Bhavneesh Sharma, MD, MBA

Pharma/ Biotechnology Investments Specialist

Vasuda Capital Management

Equity Bottom-Up

Neurocrine Biosciences / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul class="summary_content"><li>FDA has accepted the New Drug Application (NDA) for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/14480" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14480:1">Neurocrine Biosciences Inc (NBIX US)</a> Valbenazine for the treatment of Tardive Dyskinesia (with PDUFA on April 11, 2017).</li><li>The common stock price has retraced from the recent high, and could see a run-up after the acceptance of NDA by FDA. Successful results of Valbenazine for the treatment of Tourette's syndrome (expected later this year) are also expected to provide an upward boost to the stock price. </li><li>Elagolix, an oral, non-peptide GnRH antagonist, licensed to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/1135" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1135:1">Abbvie Inc (ABBV US)</a>, was successful in two phase 3 studies for the treatment of endometriosis. </li><li>In this report, we present our investment thesis for this Company and the sum-of-parts enterprise DCF (risk-adjusted NPV) valuation for the common stock. We have Buy rating on the common stock with price target=US$69.67 (6-18 months timeframe). The Company could also be taken over by big pharma (possible acquirers: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/867" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:867:1">Allergan Plc (AGN US)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/972" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:972:1">Biogen Inc (BIIB US)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/22142" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22142:1">Shire PLC (SHP LN)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/1135" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1135:1">Abbvie Inc (ABBV US)</a>. </li></ul><p> </p>

FDA has accepted the New Drug Application (NDA) for Neurocrine Biosciences Inc (NBIX US) Valbenazine for the treatment of Tardive Dyskinesia (with PDUFA on April 11, 2017).The common stock price has retraced from the recent high, and could see a run-up after the acceptance of NDA by FDA. Successful results of Valbenazine for the treatment of Tourette's syndrome (expected later this year) are also expected to provide an upward boost to the stock price. Elagolix, an oral, non-peptide GnRH antagonist, licensed to Abbvie Inc (ABBV US), was successful in two phase 3 studies for the treatment of endometriosis. In this report, we present our investment thesis for this Company and the sum-of-parts enterprise DCF (risk-adjusted NPV) valuation for the common stock. We have Buy rating on the common stock with price target=US$69.67 (6-18 months timeframe). The Company could also be taken over by big pharma (possible acquirers: Allergan Plc (AGN US), Biogen Inc (BIIB US), Shire PLC (SHP LN), Abbvie Inc (ABBV US).  

Neurocrine Biosciences: An Attractive Takeover Candidate with Potential >50% Upside.