New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm

Forsyth Barr

We are proud to be a New Zealand owned firm, with 21 offices throughout the country and over 300 employees. We assist personal, institutional and corporate clients providing a full range of investment services.

Forsyth Barr is a foundation New Zealand Exchange firm (NZX) and accredited market participant. We have been confirmed by the Financial Markets Authority as a Qualifying Financial Entity (QFE).

Research is the cornerstone of our advice. We have one of New Zealand's leading teams of analysts. Our global affiliations ensure comprehensive research coverage of all major investment markets.

New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm, Forsyth Barr

Equity Bottom-Up

<h2>Napier Port Strong Third Quarter, Cautious Outlook</h2>
Napier Port (NPH) reported strong 3Q21 financial performance but has retained FY21 EBITDA guidance amid the slowing log export trade, COVID-19 restrictions for exporters and seasonally weaker container business through the final quarter of the year. Underlying EBITDA in the quarter of NZ$12.8m was up +37% albeit against a weak COVID-19 lock-down impacted prior year period.
6 Wharf construction continues with NZ$76m of capex spent year-to-date. Construction is due for completion in late 2022, with delays likely given current COVID-19 restrictions.
Outlook
FY21 EBITDA guidance of NZ$39m-NZ$42m is retained, implying a weaker 4Q21 period.
Management says: “Looking forward, we have seen some early market signals suggesting Chinese log market prices may be moderating. In addition, log exporters continue to experience higher shipping costs which is negatively affecting the economics of this trade and which both have an influence on the volume of exported logs from New Zealand. As expected, cruise ship visits are unlikely to resume for the coming cruise season, which traditionally commences in October and extends through the summer.”
Conference Call
Management will host a conference call at 11am. Pre-register at&nbsp;<a href="https://s1.c-conf.com/DiamondPass/10015815-aj93nd.html" target="_blank" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://s1.c-conf.com/DiamondPass/10015815-aj93nd.html&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1629936280497000&amp;usg=AFQjCNGM8k4DlhEJVyn1V55SNldFWmNVJQ" rel="noopener">https://s1.c-conf.com/DiamondPass/10015815-aj93nd.html</a>
3Q21 result summary (NZ$m)
<table class="table table-striped">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td style="width: 124.8pt; height: 11.5pt;">
&nbsp;
</td>
<td style="width: 44.8pt; height: 11.5pt;">
3Q20
</td>
<td style="width: 43.8pt; height: 11.5pt;">
3Q21
</td>
<td style="width: 49.8pt; height: 11.5pt;">
Change
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 124.8pt; height: 11.5pt;">
Sales revenue
</td>
<td style="width: 44.8pt; height: 11.5pt;">
24.3
</td>
<td style="width: 43.8pt; height: 11.5pt;">
30.4
</td>
<td style="width: 49.8pt; height: 11.5pt;">
25.3%
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 124.8pt; height: 11.5pt;">
EBITDA
</td>
<td style="width: 44.8pt; height: 11.5pt;">
9.3
</td>
<td style="width: 43.8pt; height: 11.5pt;">
12.8
</td>
<td style="width: 49.8pt; height: 11.5pt;">
37.4%
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 124.8pt; height: 11.5pt;">
EBIT
</td>
<td style="width: 44.8pt; height: 11.5pt;">
6.1
</td>
<td style="width: 43.8pt; height: 11.5pt;">
9.2
</td>
<td style="width: 49.8pt; height: 11.5pt;">
51.9%
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 124.8pt; height: 11.5pt;">
Underlying NPAT
</td>
<td style="width: 44.8pt; height: 11.5pt;">
4.2
</td>
<td style="width: 43.8pt; height: 11.5pt;">
6.7
</td>
<td style="width: 49.8pt; height: 11.5pt;">
55.5%
</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
Source: NPH, Forsyth Barr analysis

Napier Port Strong Third Quarter, Cautious Outlook
Napier Port (NPH) reported strong 3Q21 financial performance but has retained FY21 EBITDA guidance amid the slowing log export trade, COVID-19 restrictions for exporters and seasonally weaker container business through the final quarter of the year. Underlying EBITDA in the quarter of NZ$12.8m was up +37% albeit against a weak COVID-19 lock-down impacted prior year period.
6 Wharf construction continues with NZ$76m of capex spent year-to-date. Construction is due for completion in late 2022, with delays likely given current COVID-19 restrictions.
Outlook
FY21 EBITDA guidance of NZ$39m-NZ$42m is retained, implying a weaker 4Q21 period.
Management says: “Looking forward, we have seen some early market signals suggesting Chinese log market prices may be moderating. In addition, log exporters continue to experience higher shipping costs which is negatively affecting the economics of this trade and which both have an influence on the volume of exported logs from New Zealand. As expected, cruise ship visits are unlikely to resume for the coming cruise season, which traditionally commences in October and extends through the summer.”
Conference Call
Management will host a conference call at 11am. Pre-register at&nbsp;https://s1.c-conf.com/DiamondPass/10015815-aj93nd.html
3Q21 result summary (NZ$m)




&nbsp;


3Q20


3Q21


Change




Sales revenue


24.3


30.4


25.3%




EBITDA


9.3


12.8


37.4%




EBIT


6.1


9.2


51.9%




Underlying NPAT


4.2


6.7


55.5%




Source: NPH, Forsyth Barr analysis

Napier Port: Strong Third Quarter, Cautious Outlook