Asia Economist and CEO, Centennial Asia Advisors

Manu Bhaskaran

Mr. Bhaskaran is a leading Asian economist based in Singapore with more than 30 years of experience in studying economic, political and security issues that shape the business environment in Asia. He co-ordinates the Asian business of Washington DC-based strategic advisory firm, Centennial Group, directing its Asian economic research practice which provides in-depth analysis of macro trends in Asia. He works extensively with investment institutions, government agencies and corporations. Mr. Bhaskaran regularly presents his views on the economic, political and business environment in Asia at business conferences and in-house briefings. He has conducted studies on a wide range of subjects including: consumer finance in Asia; Asian integration; regional and country-specific political and economic outlooks; the Impact of China on Asia; portfolio capital flows in emerging markets, amongst many others. He is as a member of the Regional Advisory Group for Asia and the Pacific of the International Monetary Fund. Mr. Bhaskaran is a regular columnist for The Edge (Singapore) and holds positions in think tanks including being Adjunct Senior Research Fellow at the Institute of Policy Studies (IPS); Vice President of the Economics Society of Singapore, and Council Member of the Singapore Institute of International Affairs (SIIA). Mr. Bhaskaran serves on the boards of CIMB Investment Bank and Japfa Limited.

Asia Economist and CEO

The Week That Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma - OTT's Back, Indonesian Consumer Health, and Lippo Karawaci

HNA/ CGTN/ US-China/ Environment/ Myanmar

Myanmar: Will the Military Use Force to Quell Protests?

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<ul style="list-style-type: square;">
<li>Today’s military coup brings an end to Myanmar’s democratisation. It can only mean bad news for Myanmar’s political stability and economic prospects. And it creates an overhang of risk around the Southeast Asian region’s stability as well.</li>
<li>Although the military has promised new elections, it is clear that its intentions are to re-assert military direction of the country. It may take a while but eventually a strong popular backlash is likely against the military which lacks any kind of legitimacy – and that means instability. In the meantime, reduced foreign direct investment and likely sanctions will slow Myanmar’s growth potential markedly.</li>
<li>Aside from Myanmar itself, the biggest loser from the coup will be ASEAN which will find itself again burdened by a sanctioned country whose near-pariah status limits ASEAN’s ability to engage profitably with others. China may not be happy with the coup but can live with it and could even gain some strategic advantages.</li>
</ul>


Today’s military coup brings an end to Myanmar’s democratisation. It can only mean bad news for Myanmar’s political stability and economic prospects. And it creates an overhang of risk around the Southeast Asian region’s stability as well.
Although the military has promised new elections, it is clear that its intentions are to re-assert military direction of the country. It may take a while but eventually a strong popular backlash is likely against the military which lacks any kind of legitimacy – and that means instability. In the meantime, reduced foreign direct investment and likely sanctions will slow Myanmar’s growth potential markedly.
Aside from Myanmar itself, the biggest loser from the coup will be ASEAN which will find itself again burdened by a sanctioned country whose near-pariah status limits ASEAN’s ability to engage profitably with others. China may not be happy with the coup but can live with it and could even gain some strategic advantages.


Myanmar’s Military Coup: No Good Scenarios