FX Strategist

Greg Gibbs

Greg has had a long career in foreign exchange, beginning at the Reserve Bank of Australia in 1989.  He was the first economics graduate at the Bank to be assigned to the foreign exchange dealing desk. Greg learnt from highly respected stewards of policy and market development at the Bank.  He played a leading role in establishing the Bank’s approach to asset and currency management of its international reserves, and managed the Bank's Japanese bond portfolio for a year before joining the private sector in 1995.

In October 2015, Greg launched his own FX research company, Amplifying Global FX Capital, after completing duties at the Royal Bank of Scotland in Singapore where he was the Head of Asia Pacific Markets Strategy since February 2014.  His flagship  report (AmpGFX) is available here on SmartKarma.

He has maintained a trading track record since March 2013. The results are very good over this period. There have been significant macro developments that suit his approach to markets. He is now managing his own capital and will often have positions in the markets that he is writing about in his AmpGFX report.

For a detailed biography and trading performance analysis head to the ampGFXcapital.com website.

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Fundamental analysis of topical themes in FX

Amplifying Global FX Capital

Amplifying Global FX Capital was founded in 2015 and is fully owned by Greg Gibbs. It is a registered company both in Australia and Colorado, USA and is a licensed in Australia to provide financial services.

We are producing a regular trading view orientated macroeconomic analysis of topical themes in global financial markets, with a particular focus on foreign exchange. We invite you to view an “executive summary” of these reports in “AmpGFX Reports” under our “Research” menu.

These reports are drawn from the analysis of Greg Gibbs and inform the capital management he undertakes on behalf of the company. The trading performance is posted periodically on our website. We aim to build our company into both a research and capital management business. We are currently in the planning phase for managing capital for wholesale customers.

Greg Gibbs has spent his working life of more than 26 years in financial markets, beginning in 1989 at the Reserve Bank of Australia, after completing a Bachelor of Economics Degree (Honours) at the Australian National University. He has been a CFA Charterholder since 2005. He has worked in Sydney, Singapore, New York and London for major global banks and presented on foreign exchange markets to major financial institutions and companies around the world, and maintained a high profile in the financial media.

Before Amplifying Global FX Capital, Greg was the Head of Asia Pacific Market Strategy at the Royal Bank of Scotland based Singapore. He now resides in Breckenridge Colorado.

FX & Rates

After the recent rise in global yields, AUD and NZD now appear to be in the process of unwinding strength generated by a ‘search-for-yield’ during the first three-quarters of the year.  Both currencies have scope to fall to re-connect with narrower yield differentials following rate cuts earlier this year and higher rates in the USA.  The bigger source of downside risk for these currencies is the pressure higher global yields may place on domestic economic growth as highly leveraged households face higher mortgage payments.  Australian and New Zealand household leverage has risen to new records, exceeding pre-GFC levels, whereas USA household leverage has declined significantly. Australian and New Zealand banks still rely significantly on foreign funding sources.  Higher global yields and regulatory pressure to switch to longer term sources of finance are already raising funding costs for Australian banks.  Extended housing markets, an apartment glut in Australian cities, and macroprudential policy tightening in New Zealand also generate risks in the crucial housing market. A probable sovereign ratings downgrade in Australia is expected to feed through to somewhat higher mortgage rates in the year ahead.  The recent sharp rise in Chinese rates and yields across maturity and credit segments points to financial stress in China generating risks for the Australian and New Zealand economies. Furthermore, both the RBA and RBNZ would prefer a policy mix of a lower exchange rate and higher interest rates, suggesting they will not be an impediment to further significant falls in these currencies.

After the recent rise in global yields, AUD and NZD now appear to be in the process of unwinding strength generated by a ‘search-for-yield’ during the first three-quarters of the year.  Both currencies have scope to fall to re-connect with narrower yield differentials following rate cuts earlier this year and higher rates in the USA.  The bigger source of downside risk for these currencies is the pressure higher global yields may place on domestic economic growth as highly leveraged households face higher mortgage payments.  Australian and New Zealand household leverage has risen to new records, exceeding pre-GFC levels, whereas USA household leverage has declined significantly. Australian and New Zealand banks still rely significantly on foreign funding sources.  Higher global yields and regulatory pressure to switch to longer term sources of finance are already raising funding costs for Australian banks.  Extended housing markets, an apartment glut in Australian cities, and macroprudential policy tightening in New Zealand also generate risks in the crucial housing market. A probable sovereign ratings downgrade in Australia is expected to feed through to somewhat higher mortgage rates in the year ahead.  The recent sharp rise in Chinese rates and yields across maturity and credit segments points to financial stress in China generating risks for the Australian and New Zealand economies. Furthermore, both the RBA and RBNZ would prefer a policy mix of a lower exchange rate and higher interest rates, suggesting they will not be an impediment to further significant falls in these currencies.

AUD

More Trouble for AUD and NZD