Senior Technology Analyst, Japanese Equities, LightStream Research

Scott Foster

Securities analyst covering electronics, precision equipment & robotics, engineering, construction, transport and other sectors for more than 25 years in Japan and 3 years in Korea. Permanent resident of Japan.

Senior Technology Analyst, Japanese Equities

Misumi Group (9962 JP): Upturn in Sales Already Discounted

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions ​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​02/​​​​​​​​​​​​​​02 - Aisin, MonotaRO

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions ​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​02/​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​03 Hirose, Eisai..

MonotaRO (3064 JP): COVID-19 Drives Growth, Efficiency Supports Margins

Japan Retail Review 2019-20 Part II: A Sector by Sector Review of Winners and Losers

Familymart: What's Next? And Will Mitsubishi React?

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Bottom-Up

In the month since we last wrote on MonotaRO (<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/monotaro-3064-jp-covid-19-drives-growth-efficiency-supports-margins" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:43371" rel="noopener">MonotaRO (3064 JP): COVID-19 Drives Growth, Efficiency Supports Margins)</a>, the share price has risen by 25%. This reflects significant increases in monthly sales and new customer acquisitions.However, investors should note that the surge in new customer acquisitions triggered by the outbreak of COVID-19 is fading. And parent company sales growth in the nine months from January to September was in line with, not better than,  management's consolidated sales guidance for FY Dec-20 as a whole. The company has considerable long-term growth potential, in our estimation, but at more than 100x our EPS estimate for 2020, the shares now look overvalued.

In the month since we last wrote on MonotaRO (MonotaRO (3064 JP): COVID-19 Drives Growth, Efficiency Supports Margins), the share price has risen by 25%. This reflects significant increases in monthly sales and new customer acquisitions.However, investors should note that the surge in new customer acquisitions triggered by the outbreak of COVID-19 is fading. And parent company sales growth in the nine months from January to September was in line with, not better than,  management's consolidated sales guidance for FY Dec-20 as a whole. The company has considerable long-term growth potential, in our estimation, but at more than 100x our EPS estimate for 2020, the shares now look overvalued. 

MonotaRO (3064 JP): Pandemic-Driven Growth Surge Fading

MonotaRO Co Ltd

MonotaRO (3064 JP): Pandemic-Driven Growth Surge Fading