Japan/Asia Long-Short, LightStream Research

Mio Kato

Over 15 years analysing Japanese and Asian stocks from a long/short perspective

I focus on cyclically driven sectors such as Gaming, Factory Automation and Autos

An eclectic background as a long-short analyst, upper management at a financial data startup through its listing, and as the founder of a team analysing big/alternative data, all of which supports independent and differentiated views... we hope

An appreciation for Mathematics drives the development of a "Micro-Quantamental" process which can provide a data-driven, historically-informed and semi-automated foundation upon which to layer more qualitative and judgemental analysis, thus improving investment decision-making speed and accuracy

Japan/Asia Long-Short

Mitsubishi Motors – A Hail Mary in ASEAN

Mitsubishi Motors – Struggling Despite Rising Tide

Mitsubishi Motors – Rumoured Stake Sale by Nissan Will Renew Alliance Breakup Concerns

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Bottom-Up

Mitsubishi Motor reported 1QFY22 results on 27th July which saw revenues of ¥432bn (-14% QoQ, +88% YoY) and OP of ¥10.6bn (OPM of 2.5% compared to the OPM of -1.7% in 4QFY21).The reported revenue was 4.1% higher than consensus estimates while OP beat consensus estimates for a loss of ¥6.9bn. This is the first datapoint for Japanese automotive earnings this quarter and points to our call for broad beats across the industry being correct.Guidance was revised up from ¥30bn in OP to ¥40bn but remains conservative.<table class="table table-striped"><tbody>
<tr>
<td style="width: 40.92%;">In ¥bn</td>
<td style="width: 19.92%;">Revenue </td>
<td style="width: 22.06%;">OP</td>
<td style="width: 17.08%;">OPM</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 40.92%;">Results - 1QFY22</td>
<td style="width: 19.92%;">               432</td>
<td style="width: 22.06%;">                10.6</td>
<td style="width: 17.08%;">2.5%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 40.92%;">Consensus - 1QFY22</td>
<td style="width: 19.92%;">415</td>
<td style="width: 22.06%;">              -6.9</td>
<td style="width: 17.08%;">-1.7%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 40.92%;">Surprise</td>
<td style="width: 19.92%;">4.1%</td>
<td style="width: 22.06%;">NM</td>
<td style="width: 17.08%;">4.1% points</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 40.92%;"> </td>
<td style="width: 19.92%;"> </td>
<td style="width: 22.06%;"> </td>
<td style="width: 17.08%;"> </td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 40.92%;">Guidance - FY22</td>
<td style="width: 19.92%;">           2,080</td>
<td style="width: 22.06%;">                    40</td>
<td style="width: 17.08%;">1.9%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 40.92%;">Consensus - FY22</td>
<td style="width: 19.92%;">           1,889</td>
<td style="width: 22.06%;">2.5</td>
<td style="width: 17.08%;">0.1%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 40.92%;">Difference</td>
<td style="width: 19.92%;">10.1%</td>
<td style="width: 22.06%;">1516.4%</td>
<td style="width: 17.08%;">1.8% points</td>
</tr>
</tbody></table><div style="text-align: left;" class="content-caption">Source: Company disclosures, CapIQ</div>

Mitsubishi Motor reported 1QFY22 results on 27th July which saw revenues of ¥432bn (-14% QoQ, +88% YoY) and OP of ¥10.6bn (OPM of 2.5% compared to the OPM of -1.7% in 4QFY21).The reported revenue was 4.1% higher than consensus estimates while OP beat consensus estimates for a loss of ¥6.9bn. This is the first datapoint for Japanese automotive earnings this quarter and points to our call for broad beats across the industry being correct.Guidance was revised up from ¥30bn in OP to ¥40bn but remains conservative.

In ¥bn
Revenue 
OP
OPM


Results - 1QFY22
               432
                10.6
2.5%


Consensus - 1QFY22
415
              -6.9
-1.7%


Surprise
4.1%
NM
4.1% points


 
 
 
 


Guidance - FY22
           2,080
                    40
1.9%


Consensus - FY22
           1,889
2.5
0.1%


Difference
10.1%
1516.4%
1.8% points

Source: Company disclosures, CapIQ

Mitsubishi Motors – Kicking Off 1QFY22 Auto Earnings in Style