New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm

Forsyth Barr

We are proud to be a New Zealand owned firm, with 21 offices throughout the country and over 300 employees. We assist personal, institutional and corporate clients providing a full range of investment services.

Forsyth Barr is a foundation New Zealand Exchange firm (NZX) and accredited market participant. We have been confirmed by the Financial Markets Authority as a Qualifying Financial Entity (QFE).

Research is the cornerstone of our advice. We have one of New Zealand's leading teams of analysts. Our global affiliations ensure comprehensive research coverage of all major investment markets.

New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm, Forsyth Barr

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>September 2024 was always going to be a tough month for Meridian Energy (MEL) and so it proved to be, albeit it was worse than expected.</li><li>High cost hedges, the NZAS demand response contract, and a surprisingly poor LWAP/GWAP ratio all contributed to MEL making an EBITDAF loss in the month — the first time this has happened since the 2012 dry spell, which was pre-listing.</li><li>October 2024 is also expected to be a difficult month (albeit an improvement on September 2024). After that, we expect earnings to normalise and step up in 2H25, as MEL supplies less of the NZAS volume. NEUTRAL.</li></ul>

September 2024 was always going to be a tough month for Meridian Energy (MEL) and so it proved to be, albeit it was worse than expected.High cost hedges, the NZAS demand response contract, and a surprisingly poor LWAP/GWAP ratio all contributed to MEL making an EBITDAF loss in the month — the first time this has happened since the 2012 dry spell, which was pre-listing.October 2024 is also expected to be a difficult month (albeit an improvement on September 2024). After that, we expect earnings to normalise and step up in 2H25, as MEL supplies less of the NZAS volume. NEUTRAL.

Meridian Energy - Airing the Dirty Washing — Sept 2024 Op Stats