Japan/Asia Long-Short, LightStream Research

Mio Kato

Over 15 years analysing Japanese and Asian stocks from a long/short perspective

I focus on cyclically driven sectors such as Gaming, Factory Automation and Autos

An eclectic background as a long-short analyst, upper management at a financial data startup through its listing, and as the founder of a team analysing big/alternative data, all of which supports independent and differentiated views... we hope

An appreciation for Mathematics drives the development of a "Micro-Quantamental" process which can provide a data-driven, historically-informed and semi-automated foundation upon which to layer more qualitative and judgemental analysis, thus improving investment decision-making speed and accuracy

Japan/Asia Long-Short

2020 High Conviction: Overweight Tongcheng-Elong (780:HK) A Prime Acquisition Target for Trip.com

TCEL: China’s New Virus Is Scary, But One Chart Shows How You Can Profit

Coronavirus Casualties: China Tech's Ten Biggest Losers

Meituan-Dianping Metrics Versus Global Online Food Delivery Peers

Meituan Dianping Quantamental: Are 2Q's Excellent Results Sustainable?

Meituan (3690 HK): Broke Even for Second Quarter, Strong Growth, 9%~13% Upside

Battle Lines Drawn As BABA Builds Out First/Last-Mile Capacity; But Who Will Fund 75+ Bn CNY CapEx?

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Quantitative Analysis

<p>In our last note on Meituan Dianping we pointed out that consensus was projecting a 15% OPM in 2023 and that we felt this would be quite challenging to achieve. Since then forecasts have continued to trend up and expectations are now for a 17.4% OPM in 2022 and a 21.5% OPM in 2023. We believe analysts are getting carried away by seasonally boosted earnings and discuss why below.</p>

In our last note on Meituan Dianping we pointed out that consensus was projecting a 15% OPM in 2023 and that we felt this would be quite challenging to achieve. Since then forecasts have continued to trend up and expectations are now for a 17.4% OPM in 2022 and a 21.5% OPM in 2023. We believe analysts are getting carried away by seasonally boosted earnings and discuss why below.

Meituan Dianping – Great Seasonal Quarter Boosts Expectations Into Unrealistic Territory