Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

HK Type 4 license through Ballingal Investment Advisors Ltd. ("BIA" or "BIAL")

BACKGROUND
I have 20+yrs experience in Asia doing alternative strategies (i.e. non-delta1 non long-only) in fixed income, equity derivatives, and activist/catalyst/event-driven and long-short equity strategies with most of that time spent managing money. 

4 years in fixed income macro, 8 years running internal hedge fund and 4yrs investment banking at Citi in Japan, 3 years running an Asia multi-strat portfolio at a hedge fund, 4+yrs as an independent special situations analyst.

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

McD's Japan:  Earnings? Check. Parent Selldown OK? Check. Japanese CEO? Check TSE Prime? Unknown

McDs Japan (2702) Update: Parent Selldown 80% Done, or 63.6% Done.

Gravity Works As WeWork Doesn't; Now Plan B

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mcdonald-s-holdings-co-japan" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:985:1" rel="noopener">Mcdonald's Holdings Co Japan (2702 JP)</a> today <a href="https://ircms.irstreet.com/contents/data_file.php?template=1585&amp;brand=74&amp;folder_contents=36934&amp;src_data=312469&amp;filename=pdf_file.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">reported</a> Q2 revenues which were +12.5% year on year, OP which was up 13.1%yoy, and Net Profit which was up 13.9%yoy. For H1 as a whole, revenues were up 8.6% (+10.2% including franchised stores) and OP and NP were up 16.9% and 18.7%, respectively, vs the year prior period. The company also raised its <a href="https://ircms.irstreet.com/contents/data_file.php?template=1585&amp;brand=74&amp;folder_contents=36934&amp;src_data=312462&amp;filename=pdf_file.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">forecasts</a> for the full year from the forecast at the end of Q1 which was ¥299.5bn in revenue to ¥312bn; the OP forecast was lifted from ¥32bn to ¥34bn. The NP forecast was lifted from ¥20.4bn to ¥21bn.We basically knew this was going to be the case a couple of weeks ago because of the comments made in the analyst call on 28 July after parent <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mcdonald-s-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1425:1" rel="noopener">Mcdonald's Corp (MCD US)</a> earnings were released.What we do not have yet is any indication of the company's intent with regard to the TSE's market structure changes come April 2022. But we should have another block to be sold by MCDs. I would expect 3.8mm shares to close out the sale of shares. I would expect it imminently. That will be the end of MCD's selldown of MCDs Japan shares... but not quite. More below.

Mcdonald's Holdings Co Japan (2702 JP) today reported Q2 revenues which were +12.5% year on year, OP which was up 13.1%yoy, and Net Profit which was up 13.9%yoy. For H1 as a whole, revenues were up 8.6% (+10.2% including franchised stores) and OP and NP were up 16.9% and 18.7%, respectively, vs the year prior period. The company also raised its forecasts for the full year from the forecast at the end of Q1 which was ¥299.5bn in revenue to ¥312bn; the OP forecast was lifted from ¥32bn to ¥34bn. The NP forecast was lifted from ¥20.4bn to ¥21bn.We basically knew this was going to be the case a couple of weeks ago because of the comments made in the analyst call on 28 July after parent Mcdonald's Corp (MCD US) earnings were released.What we do not have yet is any indication of the company's intent with regard to the TSE's market structure changes come April 2022. But we should have another block to be sold by MCDs. I would expect 3.8mm shares to close out the sale of shares. I would expect it imminently. That will be the end of MCD's selldown of MCDs Japan shares... but not quite. More below.

McDs Japan (2702) Update: Q1 Strong As Expected, No TSE1 News

Mcdonald's Japan

McDs Japan (2702) Update: Q1 Strong As Expected, No TSE1 News