Japan/Asia Long-Short, LightStream Research

Mio Kato

Over 15 years analysing Japanese and Asian stocks from a long/short perspective

I focus on cyclically driven sectors such as Gaming, Factory Automation and Autos

An eclectic background as a long-short analyst, upper management at a financial data startup through its listing, and as the founder of a team analysing big/alternative data, all of which supports independent and differentiated views... we hope

An appreciation for Mathematics drives the development of a "Micro-Quantamental" process which can provide a data-driven, historically-informed and semi-automated foundation upon which to layer more qualitative and judgemental analysis, thus improving investment decision-making speed and accuracy

Japan/Asia Long-Short

Mazda – Stealth Upgrade and On Track to Blowout

Mazda – A Buy As The Yen Weakens With The BOJ Trapped

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Despite supply chain and material cost headwinds Mazda beat consensus FY OP estimates by 15% despite being in-line on revenue. </li>
<li>Guidance was also 17% above consensus but we think both should be ignored because guidance is being sandbagged and consensus remains clueless. </li>
<li>We expect sales volumes to beat Mazda’s guidance slightly and for OP generation to be ¥240-300bn rather than ¥120bn.</li>
</ul>


Despite supply chain and material cost headwinds Mazda beat consensus FY OP estimates by 15% despite being in-line on revenue. 
Guidance was also 17% above consensus but we think both should be ignored because guidance is being sandbagged and consensus remains clueless. 
We expect sales volumes to beat Mazda’s guidance slightly and for OP generation to be ¥240-300bn rather than ¥120bn.


Mazda – Guidance Is Actually MORE Conservative Than Peers

Mazda Motor

Mazda – Guidance Is Actually MORE Conservative Than Peers