Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

HK Type 4 license through Ballingal Investment Advisors Ltd. ("BIA" or "BIAL")

BACKGROUND
I have 20+yrs experience in Asia doing alternative strategies (i.e. non-delta1 non long-only) in fixed income, equity derivatives, and activist/catalyst/event-driven and long-short equity strategies with most of that time spent managing money. 

4 years in fixed income macro, 8 years running internal hedge fund and 4yrs investment banking at Citi in Japan, 3 years running an Asia multi-strat portfolio at a hedge fund, 4+yrs as an independent special situations analyst.

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

A Quick Run Through Fundamentals Before The MatsumotoKiyoshi and Cocokara Fine Merger

Matsukiyo-Cocokara Situation Gets Its Activist Noise Started

Matsukiyo-Cocokara Merger Heralds New Era for Drugstores

Cocokara/​MatsuKiyo Deal Finally Coming?

Cocokara/MatsuKiyo - Big Gains Since Delay, Stay Long Both

Quiddity Advisors

Equity Bottom-Up

The <a href="https://corp.cocokarafine.co.jp/english/ir/pdf/20210226_eng_03.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">presentation</a> provided by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/matsumotokiyoshi-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2259:1" rel="noopener">Matsumotokiyoshi Holdings Co., Ltd. (3088 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cocokara-fine-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15447:1" rel="noopener">Cocokara Fine (3098 JP)</a> when they announced their Management Integration told of two major inputs to what is helping the stocks bounce today. 
There is one other which has been implicit, but people did not appear to include it in their numbers.
There is yet another which is coincidental.
One of the two inputs - expected OP synergies - is probably a bit stronger than people expected. 
The other one - the Business Objective of the Group - is obviously new, but perhaps should not be.
The initial discussion was carried in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/matsukiyococokara-co-the-merger" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:48652" rel="noopener">MatsukiyoCocokara &amp; Co - The Merger</a> after a half dozen insights on the deal over the previous 18 months-plus (yes, we've been looking at this a long time).
Below, I break down how each of these inputs shows up in Revenue, OP, and NP based on consensus numbers, adjusted to NEWCO Group Totals and MatsuKiyo-equivalent Per Share Estimates, and historical seasonality to project a quarterly and running 4Q total Revenue, OP, NP, and EPS future consensus.

The presentation provided by Matsumotokiyoshi Holdings Co., Ltd. (3088 JP) and Cocokara Fine (3098 JP) when they announced their Management Integration told of two major inputs to what is helping the stocks bounce today. 
There is one other which has been implicit, but people did not appear to include it in their numbers.
There is yet another which is coincidental.
One of the two inputs - expected OP synergies - is probably a bit stronger than people expected. 
The other one - the Business Objective of the Group - is obviously new, but perhaps should not be.
The initial discussion was carried in MatsukiyoCocokara &amp; Co - The Merger after a half dozen insights on the deal over the previous 18 months-plus (yes, we've been looking at this a long time).
Below, I break down how each of these inputs shows up in Revenue, OP, and NP based on consensus numbers, adjusted to NEWCO Group Totals and MatsuKiyo-equivalent Per Share Estimates, and historical seasonality to project a quarterly and running 4Q total Revenue, OP, NP, and EPS future consensus.

MatsuKiyoCocokara Merger and Implied Forward Forecasts