TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research Analyst, Obex Capital Research

Aaron Gabin

I have over 20 years’ experience investing in the TMT and Consumer sectors, almost entirely on the buyside. Started at Bernstein covering software in 2001, moved to the buyside at Government of Singapore Investment Corporation (GIC) in 2003, covering hardware, software, and media. 

After getting an MBA at NYU in 2008 and a CFA, I spent 8 years at Coburn Ventures (a market neutral TMT/Consumer hedge fund). In 2015, I joined Deimos Asset Management, a low net multi-strat, where I managed a  TMT/Consumer portfolio.

I've spent the past few years at Obex Capital Management providing independent investment research to TMT and Consumer investors.

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research Analyst

Apple's App Store Price Cut Beneficiaries

Match 1Q21 Earnings: Looking for an Opening

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research

Obex Capital Research

“Obex” is Latin for Barriers to Entry. Obex Capital Management’s investment philosophy is driven by an intense focus on which business model’s Barriers to Entry are able to withstand the ever increasing competitive disruption in the TMT and Consumer Sectors.

Equity Bottom-Up

<p>We think Match’s stock pulled back on the quarter due to lower relative guidance on the recently acquired Hyperconnect business and a lower EBITDA guidance than expected, given that Google has pushed out pending algorithm changes to next year (removing a marketing cost headwind). But there is an ongoing lawsuit regarding Tinder’s valuation brought by its founder Sean Rad, where Rad accuses IAC and Match of suppressing Tinder’s valuation. There are an extra $15M in legal costs here. Bottomline…this is an irrelevant figure and not worthy of the big selloff post earnings. We think the key drivers of this stock are Tinder and increasingly Hinge and these are as strong as ever.</p><p>Part of the reason we remain bullish on Match is that inevitably, the pandemic will get under control…and people will return to wanting to meet people…but the delta variant has definitely thrown a monkey wrench into the timing of Match’s inevitable resurgence. Good opportunity to add on this earnings pullback. As we have said over the past few quarters...Match is rarity in midcap internet properties – a wildly profitable platform quasi-monopolist which trades for a rightfully high EBITDA multiple and offers few entry points – much like Adobe in software. This is a good entry point.</p><p></p><div class="content-highlight"><p>Obex’s fundamental research process is focused on secular change in the TMT and Consumer sectors. We seek to differentiate between fundamental business analysis and security analysis. Before deciding if a security’s pricing and positioning merit a long or short position, we analyze the four pillars of business fundamentals (Secular Factors, TAM, Competitive Advantage, Business Model) in order to determine if this is a “good” or “not so good” opportunity.</p></div>

We think Match’s stock pulled back on the quarter due to lower relative guidance on the recently acquired Hyperconnect business and a lower EBITDA guidance than expected, given that Google has pushed out pending algorithm changes to next year (removing a marketing cost headwind). But there is an ongoing lawsuit regarding Tinder’s valuation brought by its founder Sean Rad, where Rad accuses IAC and Match of suppressing Tinder’s valuation. There are an extra $15M in legal costs here. Bottomline…this is an irrelevant figure and not worthy of the big selloff post earnings. We think the key drivers of this stock are Tinder and increasingly Hinge and these are as strong as ever.Part of the reason we remain bullish on Match is that inevitably, the pandemic will get under control…and people will return to wanting to meet people…but the delta variant has definitely thrown a monkey wrench into the timing of Match’s inevitable resurgence. Good opportunity to add on this earnings pullback. As we have said over the past few quarters...Match is rarity in midcap internet properties – a wildly profitable platform quasi-monopolist which trades for a rightfully high EBITDA multiple and offers few entry points – much like Adobe in software. This is a good entry point.Obex’s fundamental research process is focused on secular change in the TMT and Consumer sectors. We seek to differentiate between fundamental business analysis and security analysis. Before deciding if a security’s pricing and positioning merit a long or short position, we analyze the four pillars of business fundamentals (Secular Factors, TAM, Competitive Advantage, Business Model) in order to determine if this is a “good” or “not so good” opportunity.

Match 2Q21 Earnings: Still Waiting on the Resurgence

Match Group

Match 2Q21 Earnings: Still Waiting on the Resurgence