Research from Water Tower Research, Water Tower Research

Water Tower Research

Water Tower Research is a leading equity research firm that provides research on micro, small and mid cap companies.

Water Tower Research was founded by Wall Street veterans after witnessing a fundamental shift in the investment research industry with the result being a declining knowledge base among investors, a lack of awareness and a shrinking pool of fundamental research being conducted on companies across the small-cap and micro-cap spectrum. The same issues are now increasingly occurring in the mid-cap space. This sea change within the investment community is impacting not only the companies themselves but also current shareholders and potential investors. With significantly less active sell-side sponsorship by Wall Street, a substantial information gap has developed between companies and various constituents in the financial community. The net result is fewer channels for insight and information to flow between companies and investors.

Research from Water Tower Research

Equity Research Firm

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

Multiple Countries / Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<h2>KEY HIGHLIGHTS</h2>
<div></div>
<ul>
<li>WTR-CMI last week.&nbsp;In what was another positive week for the stock market, both the Russell 2000 and S&amp;P 500 appreciated 4.3% versus week-ago levels, while our WTR-CMI index of 30 chemicals and materials technology stocks outperformed the broader market with a 4.9% return. Lithium stocks once again led our index higher, as PLL, LAC, and ALB benefited from improved investor sentiment on lithium demand and, more importantly, pricing by appreciating 21.1%, 12.3% and 10.3%, respectively. LTHM, while not quite keeping up the pace with an 8.9% improvement,&nbsp;signed a long-term lithium hydroxide supply agreement with GM, which also signed a&nbsp;long-term supply deal with South Korean LG Chem for battery cathodes. At the other end of the performance spectrum, SHW disappointed investors with its 2H22 guidance and saw its stock decline 6.6% for the week, with ASH’s 4.1% decline following an earnings beat and raise bounce the prior week and AXTA posting a 3.3% decline as its 2Q22 earrings and guidance left investors unimpressed, while the&nbsp;CEO transition, which the company announced at the same time, may also have contributed to shareholder unease.</li>
<li>Ford touts sufficient materials for EV push.&nbsp;Like many auto OEMs, Ford is not leaving the fate of its EV transition in the hands of Tier-I suppliers and instead is signing supply agreements directly with critical materials suppliers. The company recently&nbsp;announced sufficient lithium and nickel supply contracts&nbsp;to support its projected EV production into 2026.</li>
<li>China’s July new car sales continue to rebound.&nbsp;China Automobile Dealers Association expects the country’s new car sales&nbsp;to follow June’s trend of Y/Y improvement with an 18% Y/Y increase in July, as COVID lockdown restrictions continue to ease and the government’s incentives for gasoline powered vehicles kick in. NEV vehicle growth is expected to top 100% Y/Y as well.</li>
<li>MTRN commissions commercial plant.&nbsp;Materion and Kairos Power have&nbsp;jointly commissioned a Molten Salt Purification Plant (MSPP)&nbsp;for the production of beryllium fluoride and lithium fluoride for use as heat transfer fluid for the Kairos’ next generation Fluoride Salt-Cooled High-Temperature Reactor (KP-FHR) nuclear reactors.</li>
</ul>
<h2>WTR-CMI WEEKLY PERFORMANCE</h2>
<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/290/054/original/image_444686316221659573234657.png?1659573237" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="290054"></figure>
<h2>Ag-Tech and Bio-Ag</h2>
<p>Fertilizer availability (and price) remains a concern heading into 2023.&nbsp;Although fertilizer prices have come off the recent highs,&nbsp;they remain at multi-year high levels heading into the 2023 season. And it doesn’t look like prices will get much lower prior to the time farmers may want to think about locking in at least some supply at prevailing prices. Concerns remain regarding European production, particularly for nitrogen fertilizers (ammonia and urea) due to reductions in Russian-supplied natural gas and the resulting impact on both volume of fertilizer production and the cost of fertilizers in Europe. Adding further concerns is the possibility that China, which is a large producer and exporter of fertilizers, may reduce its exports due to high energy costs and increased domestic demand. Therefore, while US farmers may continue to struggle to secure sufficient supply of chemical fertilizers at acceptable prices next year yet again, the situation may also provide opportunities for American-based companies, such as CF Industries (NYSE: CF), to increase their market share and maintain elevated prices that should contribute to stronger margins. It may also create an opportunity for bio-based fertilizer companies to expand their market share.</p>
<h2>Automotive &amp; Transportation</h2>
<p>High natural gas prices and uncertain availability to affect German production.&nbsp;As Russia continues to play games with natural gas supplies to Europe, the region’s governments are asking their industries to work to reduce the use of natural gas for the time being.&nbsp;The German automotive industry is not an exception, and while steps to reduce gas use have been or are being take, the industry warns that they are temporary and further reductions would require easing of emission regulations and even then, may affect output. This may suggest continuing struggles for the European automotive market to regain its stride after two years of downward volatility. Meanwhile, commercial vehicle registrations in Europe&nbsp;continued to decline, posting a 22.5% drop Y/Y in June, with first half of the year registrations down 20.3% Y/Y.</p>
<p>Toyota struggles with production in Japan.&nbsp;The company had to&nbsp;suspend night shift production&nbsp;at one of its plants in Japan on re-emerging COVID concerns and continues to see domestic production decline as a result of supply chain disruptions and COVID protocols. The company has been able to&nbsp;offset reduced domestic production with higher output from its global network outside Japan, with foreign plant output growing 5.6% Y/Y through June, helping to offset an 18% plunge in Japanese plants’ output. Still, for the first six months of 2022, Toyota saw its total global output decline almost 4% Y/Y.</p>
<p>With car builds still down in most geographies Y/Y and likely to finish 2022 below 2021 levels, companies in our index with significant exposure to the automotive and transportation markets may continue to struggle with top-line growth despite higher prices, as sluggish volumes and negative FX headwind combined with still elevated raw material costs offset internal cost savings efforts and pricing initiatives leading to top-line and margin performance that may disappoint versus current forecasts. We therefore remain cautious on PPG and AXTA and, to a lesser extent, on HXL, AVNT, and FUL.</p>
<h2>Rating and Price Target Changes</h2>
<p>ALB –&nbsp;RBC raised its price target (PT) to $331 from $324 and reiterated its Outperform rating.</p>
<p>ASH –&nbsp;UBS raised its PT to $131 from $127 and reiterated its Buy rating; Wells Fargo also raised its PT to $110 from $107 and maintained its Equal Weight rating; BMO likewise raised its PT to $135 from $129 and reiterated its Outperform rating.</p>
<p>AVNT –&nbsp;Baird lowered its PT to $56 from $63 and reiterated its Outperform rating; Stifel also lowered its PT to $70 from $76 and reiterated its Buy recommendation; Morgan Stanley lowered its PT to $50 from $63 and maintained its Equal Weight recommendation.</p>
<p>AXTA –&nbsp;KeyBank raised its PT to $31 from $30 and reiterated its Overweight rating; JP Morgan lowered its PT to $32 from $35, while reiterating its Overweight rating; Wells Fargo raised its PT to $26 from $25 and maintained its Equal Weight rating; Baird lowered its PT to $53 from $38 and reiterated its Outperform rating.</p>
<p>CTVA –&nbsp;Mizuho Securities raised its PT to $68 from $67 and reiterated its Buy recommendation.</p>
<p>ECL –&nbsp;Deutsche Bank lowered its PT to $180 from $195 and reiterated its Buy rating; BMO lowered its PT to $172 from $181 and maintained its Market Perform rating; Mizuho Securities lowered its PT to $178 from $183 and maintained its Neutral rating; Baird lowered its PT to $171 from $193 and reiterated its Outperform rating; UBS lowered its PT to $198 from $205 and reiterated its Buy recommendation.</p>
<p>EMN –&nbsp;UBS lowered its PT to $118 from $121 and reiterated its Buy recommendation.</p>
<p>FMC –&nbsp;RBC lowered its PT to $139 from $152 and reiterated its Outperform rating; Mizuho Securities lowered its PT to $149 from $155 and reiterated its Buy recommendation.</p>
<p>HXL –&nbsp;Vertical Research raised its PT to $60 from $58 and reiterated its Buy rating; Morgan Stanley raised its PT to $59 from $57 and reiterated its Underweight recommendation.</p>
<p>PPG –&nbsp;Deutsche Bank lowered its PT to $150 from $15 and reiterated its Buy rating; Wells Fargo raised its PT to $135 from $126 and maintained its Equal Weight rating; Mizuho Securities raised its PT to $163 from $162 and reiterated its Buy rating.</p>
<p>RPM –&nbsp;UBS raised its PT to $99 from $96 and reiterated its Buy rating; RBC raised its PT to $89 from $86 and maintained its Sector Perform rating.</p>
<p>SHW –&nbsp;KeyBank lowered its PT to $290 from $335 and reiterated its Overweight rating; Deutsche Bank lowered its PT to $275 from $315 and reiterated its Buy rating; BMO lowered its PT to $251 from $274 and maintained its Market Perform rating; Wells Fargo lowered its PT to $250 from $274 and maintained its Equal Weight rating; JP Morgan lowered its PT to $275 from $300 and reiterated its Overweight rating; Morgan Stanley lowered its PT to $300 from $330 and reiterated its Overweight rating; Credit Suisse lowered its PT to $225 from $245 and reiterated its Underperform rating; UBS lowered its PT to $257 from $265 and maintained its Neutral rating; Vertical Research raised its PT to $252 from $241 and maintained its Hold rating; Berenberg Bank lowered its PT to $250 from $285 and maintained its Hold rating; RBC lowered its PT to 300 from $312 and reiterated its Outperform rating.</p>
<h2>Recent WTR Publications and Upcoming Events</h2>
<h3>Upcoming</h3>
<p>Fireside Chat with Management of Westwater Resources, Inc. (NYSE: WWR) – August 4 at 11:00 am EDT</p>
<h3>Recent Publications</h3>
<p>Management Series Report – Marrone Bio Innovations CEO Kevin Helash</p>
<p>Management Series Report – Westwater Resources Executive Chairman Terence Cryan and CAO Steven Cates</p>
<p>Initiation of Coverage – Westwater Resources, Inc.</p>
<h3>DISCLOSURES</h3>
<div></div>
<p>Water Tower Research (“WTR”) is a professional publisher of investment research reports on public companies and, to a lesser extent, private firms (“the Companies”). WTR provides investor-focused content and digital distribution strategies designed to help companies communicate with investors.<br><br>WTR is not a registered investment adviser or a broker/dealer nor does WTR provide investment banking services. WTR operates as an exempt investment adviser under the so called “publishers’ exemption” from the definition of investment adviser under Section 202(a)(11) of the Investment Advisers Act of 1940. WTR does not provide investment ratings / recommendations or price targets on the companies it reports on. Readers are advised that the research reports are published and provided solely for informational purposes and should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy securities or the rendering of investment advice. The information provided in this report should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as personalized advice. All users and readers of WTR’s reports are cautioned to consult their own independent financial, tax and legal advisors prior to purchasing or selling securities.<br><br>Dmitry Silversteyn, who is the writer of this report, covers the Chemicals &amp; Materials Technology and BioEconomy sectors for WTR. Mr. Silversteyn and members of his household have no personal or business-related relationship to the subject company other than providing digital content and any ancillary services WTR may offer.<br><br>Unless otherwise indicated, WTR intends to provide continuing coverage of the covered companies. WTR will notify its readers through website postings or other appropriate means if WTR determines to terminate coverage of any of the companies covered.<br><br>In certain instances, including this report, WTR will write research covering non-clients. Readers should assume that WTR may seek to turn these non-paying companies into paying clients. Likewise, WTR may seek to transform these non-clients into paying clients of it or of its affiliate, which provides services such as presenting at sponsored investor conferences, distributing press releases, advising on investor relations and broader corporate communications and public relations strategies as well as performing certain other related services (“Ancillary Services”). The companies that WTR covers in our research are not required to purchase or use Ancillary Services of WTR or an affiliate might offer to clients.<br><br>The manner of WTR’s potential research compensation and Ancillary Services to covered companies raise actual and perceived conflicts of interest. WTR is committed to manage those conflicts to protect its reputation and the objectivity of employees/analysts by adhering to strictly written compliance guidelines.<br><br>The views and analyses included in our research reports are based on current public information that we consider to be reliable, but no representation or warranty, expressed or implied, is made as to their accuracy, completeness, timeliness, or correctness. Neither we nor our analysts, directors, officers, employees, representatives, independent contractors or agents shall be liable for any omissions, errors or inaccuracies, regardless of cause, foreseeability or the lack of timeliness of, or any delay or interruptions in the transmission of our reports to content users. This lack of liability extends to direct, indirect, incidental, exemplary, compensatory, punitive, special or consequential damages, costs, expenses, legal fees, losses, lost income, lost profit or opportunity costs.<br><br>All investment information contained herein should be independently verified by the reader or user of this report. For additional information, all readers of this report are encouraged to visit WTR’s website www.watertowerresearch.com.</p>

KEY HIGHLIGHTS


WTR-CMI last week.&nbsp;In what was another positive week for the stock market, both the Russell 2000 and S&amp;P 500 appreciated 4.3% versus week-ago levels, while our WTR-CMI index of 30 chemicals and materials technology stocks outperformed the broader market with a 4.9% return. Lithium stocks once again led our index higher, as PLL, LAC, and ALB benefited from improved investor sentiment on lithium demand and, more importantly, pricing by appreciating 21.1%, 12.3% and 10.3%, respectively. LTHM, while not quite keeping up the pace with an 8.9% improvement,&nbsp;signed a long-term lithium hydroxide supply agreement with GM, which also signed a&nbsp;long-term supply deal with South Korean LG Chem for battery cathodes. At the other end of the performance spectrum, SHW disappointed investors with its 2H22 guidance and saw its stock decline 6.6% for the week, with ASH’s 4.1% decline following an earnings beat and raise bounce the prior week and AXTA posting a 3.3% decline as its 2Q22 earrings and guidance left investors unimpressed, while the&nbsp;CEO transition, which the company announced at the same time, may also have contributed to shareholder unease.
Ford touts sufficient materials for EV push.&nbsp;Like many auto OEMs, Ford is not leaving the fate of its EV transition in the hands of Tier-I suppliers and instead is signing supply agreements directly with critical materials suppliers. The company recently&nbsp;announced sufficient lithium and nickel supply contracts&nbsp;to support its projected EV production into 2026.
China’s July new car sales continue to rebound.&nbsp;China Automobile Dealers Association expects the country’s new car sales&nbsp;to follow June’s trend of Y/Y improvement with an 18% Y/Y increase in July, as COVID lockdown restrictions continue to ease and the government’s incentives for gasoline powered vehicles kick in. NEV vehicle growth is expected to top 100% Y/Y as well.
MTRN commissions commercial plant.&nbsp;Materion and Kairos Power have&nbsp;jointly commissioned a Molten Salt Purification Plant (MSPP)&nbsp;for the production of beryllium fluoride and lithium fluoride for use as heat transfer fluid for the Kairos’ next generation Fluoride Salt-Cooled High-Temperature Reactor (KP-FHR) nuclear reactors.

WTR-CMI WEEKLY PERFORMANCE

Ag-Tech and Bio-Ag
Fertilizer availability (and price) remains a concern heading into 2023.&nbsp;Although fertilizer prices have come off the recent highs,&nbsp;they remain at multi-year high levels heading into the 2023 season. And it doesn’t look like prices will get much lower prior to the time farmers may want to think about locking in at least some supply at prevailing prices. Concerns remain regarding European production, particularly for nitrogen fertilizers (ammonia and urea) due to reductions in Russian-supplied natural gas and the resulting impact on both volume of fertilizer production and the cost of fertilizers in Europe. Adding further concerns is the possibility that China, which is a large producer and exporter of fertilizers, may reduce its exports due to high energy costs and increased domestic demand. Therefore, while US farmers may continue to struggle to secure sufficient supply of chemical fertilizers at acceptable prices next year yet again, the situation may also provide opportunities for American-based companies, such as CF Industries (NYSE: CF), to increase their market share and maintain elevated prices that should contribute to stronger margins. It may also create an opportunity for bio-based fertilizer companies to expand their market share.
Automotive &amp; Transportation
High natural gas prices and uncertain availability to affect German production.&nbsp;As Russia continues to play games with natural gas supplies to Europe, the region’s governments are asking their industries to work to reduce the use of natural gas for the time being.&nbsp;The German automotive industry is not an exception, and while steps to reduce gas use have been or are being take, the industry warns that they are temporary and further reductions would require easing of emission regulations and even then, may affect output. This may suggest continuing struggles for the European automotive market to regain its stride after two years of downward volatility. Meanwhile, commercial vehicle registrations in Europe&nbsp;continued to decline, posting a 22.5% drop Y/Y in June, with first half of the year registrations down 20.3% Y/Y.
Toyota struggles with production in Japan.&nbsp;The company had to&nbsp;suspend night shift production&nbsp;at one of its plants in Japan on re-emerging COVID concerns and continues to see domestic production decline as a result of supply chain disruptions and COVID protocols. The company has been able to&nbsp;offset reduced domestic production with higher output from its global network outside Japan, with foreign plant output growing 5.6% Y/Y through June, helping to offset an 18% plunge in Japanese plants’ output. Still, for the first six months of 2022, Toyota saw its total global output decline almost 4% Y/Y.
With car builds still down in most geographies Y/Y and likely to finish 2022 below 2021 levels, companies in our index with significant exposure to the automotive and transportation markets may continue to struggle with top-line growth despite higher prices, as sluggish volumes and negative FX headwind combined with still elevated raw material costs offset internal cost savings efforts and pricing initiatives leading to top-line and margin performance that may disappoint versus current forecasts. We therefore remain cautious on PPG and AXTA and, to a lesser extent, on HXL, AVNT, and FUL.
Rating and Price Target Changes
ALB –&nbsp;RBC raised its price target (PT) to $331 from $324 and reiterated its Outperform rating.
ASH –&nbsp;UBS raised its PT to $131 from $127 and reiterated its Buy rating; Wells Fargo also raised its PT to $110 from $107 and maintained its Equal Weight rating; BMO likewise raised its PT to $135 from $129 and reiterated its Outperform rating.
AVNT –&nbsp;Baird lowered its PT to $56 from $63 and reiterated its Outperform rating; Stifel also lowered its PT to $70 from $76 and reiterated its Buy recommendation; Morgan Stanley lowered its PT to $50 from $63 and maintained its Equal Weight recommendation.
AXTA –&nbsp;KeyBank raised its PT to $31 from $30 and reiterated its Overweight rating; JP Morgan lowered its PT to $32 from $35, while reiterating its Overweight rating; Wells Fargo raised its PT to $26 from $25 and maintained its Equal Weight rating; Baird lowered its PT to $53 from $38 and reiterated its Outperform rating.
CTVA –&nbsp;Mizuho Securities raised its PT to $68 from $67 and reiterated its Buy recommendation.
ECL –&nbsp;Deutsche Bank lowered its PT to $180 from $195 and reiterated its Buy rating; BMO lowered its PT to $172 from $181 and maintained its Market Perform rating; Mizuho Securities lowered its PT to $178 from $183 and maintained its Neutral rating; Baird lowered its PT to $171 from $193 and reiterated its Outperform rating; UBS lowered its PT to $198 from $205 and reiterated its Buy recommendation.
EMN –&nbsp;UBS lowered its PT to $118 from $121 and reiterated its Buy recommendation.
FMC –&nbsp;RBC lowered its PT to $139 from $152 and reiterated its Outperform rating; Mizuho Securities lowered its PT to $149 from $155 and reiterated its Buy recommendation.
HXL –&nbsp;Vertical Research raised its PT to $60 from $58 and reiterated its Buy rating; Morgan Stanley raised its PT to $59 from $57 and reiterated its Underweight recommendation.
PPG –&nbsp;Deutsche Bank lowered its PT to $150 from $15 and reiterated its Buy rating; Wells Fargo raised its PT to $135 from $126 and maintained its Equal Weight rating; Mizuho Securities raised its PT to $163 from $162 and reiterated its Buy rating.
RPM –&nbsp;UBS raised its PT to $99 from $96 and reiterated its Buy rating; RBC raised its PT to $89 from $86 and maintained its Sector Perform rating.
SHW –&nbsp;KeyBank lowered its PT to $290 from $335 and reiterated its Overweight rating; Deutsche Bank lowered its PT to $275 from $315 and reiterated its Buy rating; BMO lowered its PT to $251 from $274 and maintained its Market Perform rating; Wells Fargo lowered its PT to $250 from $274 and maintained its Equal Weight rating; JP Morgan lowered its PT to $275 from $300 and reiterated its Overweight rating; Morgan Stanley lowered its PT to $300 from $330 and reiterated its Overweight rating; Credit Suisse lowered its PT to $225 from $245 and reiterated its Underperform rating; UBS lowered its PT to $257 from $265 and maintained its Neutral rating; Vertical Research raised its PT to $252 from $241 and maintained its Hold rating; Berenberg Bank lowered its PT to $250 from $285 and maintained its Hold rating; RBC lowered its PT to 300 from $312 and reiterated its Outperform rating.
Recent WTR Publications and Upcoming Events
Upcoming
Fireside Chat with Management of Westwater Resources, Inc. (NYSE: WWR) – August 4 at 11:00 am EDT
Recent Publications
Management Series Report – Marrone Bio Innovations CEO Kevin Helash
Management Series Report – Westwater Resources Executive Chairman Terence Cryan and CAO Steven Cates
Initiation of Coverage – Westwater Resources, Inc.
DISCLOSURES

Water Tower Research (“WTR”) is a professional publisher of investment research reports on public companies and, to a lesser extent, private firms (“the Companies”). WTR provides investor-focused content and digital distribution strategies designed to help companies communicate with investors.  WTR is not a registered investment adviser or a broker/dealer nor does WTR provide investment banking services. WTR operates as an exempt investment adviser under the so called “publishers’ exemption” from the definition of investment adviser under Section 202(a)(11) of the Investment Advisers Act of 1940. WTR does not provide investment ratings / recommendations or price targets on the companies it reports on. Readers are advised that the research reports are published and provided solely for informational purposes and should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy securities or the rendering of investment advice. The information provided in this report should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as personalized advice. All users and readers of WTR’s reports are cautioned to consult their own independent financial, tax and legal advisors prior to purchasing or selling securities.  Dmitry Silversteyn, who is the writer of this report, covers the Chemicals &amp; Materials Technology and BioEconomy sectors for WTR. Mr. Silversteyn and members of his household have no personal or business-related relationship to the subject company other than providing digital content and any ancillary services WTR may offer.  Unless otherwise indicated, WTR intends to provide continuing coverage of the covered companies. WTR will notify its readers through website postings or other appropriate means if WTR determines to terminate coverage of any of the companies covered.  In certain instances, including this report, WTR will write research covering non-clients. Readers should assume that WTR may seek to turn these non-paying companies into paying clients. Likewise, WTR may seek to transform these non-clients into paying clients of it or of its affiliate, which provides services such as presenting at sponsored investor conferences, distributing press releases, advising on investor relations and broader corporate communications and public relations strategies as well as performing certain other related services (“Ancillary Services”). The companies that WTR covers in our research are not required to purchase or use Ancillary Services of WTR or an affiliate might offer to clients.  The manner of WTR’s potential research compensation and Ancillary Services to covered companies raise actual and perceived conflicts of interest. WTR is committed to manage those conflicts to protect its reputation and the objectivity of employees/analysts by adhering to strictly written compliance guidelines.  The views and analyses included in our research reports are based on current public information that we consider to be reliable, but no representation or warranty, expressed or implied, is made as to their accuracy, completeness, timeliness, or correctness. Neither we nor our analysts, directors, officers, employees, representatives, independent contractors or agents shall be liable for any omissions, errors or inaccuracies, regardless of cause, foreseeability or the lack of timeliness of, or any delay or interruptions in the transmission of our reports to content users. This lack of liability extends to direct, indirect, incidental, exemplary, compensatory, punitive, special or consequential damages, costs, expenses, legal fees, losses, lost income, lost profit or opportunity costs.  All investment information contained herein should be independently verified by the reader or user of this report. For additional information, all readers of this report are encouraged to visit WTR’s website www.watertowerresearch.com.

Compass Minerals International, Inc (CMP US)

Mat-Chem Notes for the Week Ended July 31, 2022