Research from Water Tower Research, Water Tower Research

Water Tower Research

Water Tower Research is a leading equity research firm that provides research on micro, small and mid cap companies.

Water Tower Research was founded by Wall Street veterans after witnessing a fundamental shift in the investment research industry with the result being a declining knowledge base among investors, a lack of awareness and a shrinking pool of fundamental research being conducted on companies across the small-cap and micro-cap spectrum. The same issues are now increasingly occurring in the mid-cap space. This sea change within the investment community is impacting not only the companies themselves but also current shareholders and potential investors. With significantly less active sell-side sponsorship by Wall Street, a substantial information gap has developed between companies and various constituents in the financial community. The net result is fewer channels for insight and information to flow between companies and investors.

Research from Water Tower Research

Equity Research Firm

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

Multiple Countries / Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<h2>KEY HIGHLIGHTS</h2>
<ul>
<li>WTR-CMI last week. Despite a (17.5%) drop in the ALB stock price, our WTR-CMI index of 30 chemicals and materials technology companies appreciated 0.5% last week. That’s well ahead of the (1.0%) dip in the Russell 2000 and another (1.6%) in the S&amp;P 500 (1.6%). YTD, our index is also outperforming the broader markets by losing less (7.4%) compared with (8.8%) by the S&amp;P 500 and (10.5%) by the Russell 2000. Nevertheless, there is no escaping the conclusion that the market, and our sector, may be in a correction phase, with weaker performance likely to continue now that geopolitical concerns are added to economic and fiscal considerations.</li>
<li>Winners and losers. Dec-Q results and 2022 management guidance continue to serve as catalysts for stock price movement as the earnings season winds down. Better outlook by IOSP drove the stock up 8.9% last week, leading the way in our index. MTRN also provided above-expectation guidance and appreciated 5.5% as a result, while ECVT and KWR benefited from investor expectations of solid results in the days ahead. Despite beating expectations and providing stronger lithium price and revenue guidance for 2022, the ALB stock dropped ~20% before recovering slightly, as higher capex and negative FCF outlook for the next 12-18 months surprised investors. Lower-than-anticipated guidance also dragged ECL down (3.1%), while PLL and other lithium stocks—LAC and LTHM—followed ALB’s lead down.</li>
<li>Demand trigger. Market research firm MarketsandMarkets published a report forecasting the&nbsp;global antimicrobial coatings market would grow&nbsp;at a 10.5% CAGR over the next five years, driven by COVID-19-related concerns in several industrial applications. This would be a positive for major coating manufacturers such as SHW and PPG, as well as specialty coatings producers such as RPM.</li>
<li>France getting in on domestic lithium bandwagon. In a recent interview,&nbsp;French environment minister noted&nbsp;the need for the country to develop its own lithium supplies to avoid overreliance on China (or other European Union nations, for that matter). While exploratory work is in the early stages, the French government’s willingness to embrace metal mining is a stark contrast to Serbia’s recent decision to buckle to anti-mining protests and revoke Rio Tinto’s mining license.</li>
</ul>
<p>WTR-CMI WEEKLY PERFORMANCE</p>
<p>Source: Y-Charts; Prices as of February 18 close</p>
<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/259/519/original/image_942282550351645752292595.png?1645752295" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="259519"></figure>
<h2>Lithium &amp; EV Ecosystem Developments</h2>
<p>Going to California. Last week, we mentioned the need for significant expansion of capacity to recycle end-of-life lithium-ion batteries in the U.S. as well as globally, and highlighted some of the partnerships being formed across the lithium supply-chain industry to accelerate the development of economically viable battery recycling and lithium/metal reclamation processes and operations. On cue, Ford Motor (NYSE: F) and Volvo Cars, a unit of Chinese Geely Automobile (OTC: GELYF), announced that they are&nbsp;joining Redwood Materials, a recycling startup&nbsp;to develop processes to collect end-of-life batteries from electric and hybrid vehicles and recover the materials for re-use in new batteries. The venture will start in California—not surprising, given the state leads the nation in BEV and PHEV vehicle sales, and existing NEV car park.</p>
<h2>Automotive &amp; Transportation</h2>
<p>January results suggest 1H22 will be a tough period for autos and those who supply them.&nbsp;While January&nbsp;sales in China&nbsp;improved 6.7% YoY after the market posted a 2% growth in December 2021,&nbsp;European sales decelerated&nbsp;(6.7%) YoY, continuing the YoY declines in monthly sales seen for most of 2H21. VW expects higher car production to be a 2H22 event, and growth in 2022 will still leave the automotive industry below 2019 levels. So it would seem companies such as AXTA and PPG, which derive 30-60% of their revenues from the transportation market—as well as companies such as FUL, AVNT, RPM, MTRN, HXL and others that count on the growth of the automotive market to drive sales of their higher-margin specialty products—may see results that underwhelm expectations in 1Q22 and, particularly, in 2Q22, which will include the toughest YoY comps. With European Union auto registrations down YoY in January (and we suspect U.S. sales will show a similar YoY decline, when reported) and March comps being significantly tougher, chances of a positive YoY volume 1Q22 appear to have significantly diminished. So it’s a good thing that prices are going up.</p>
<h2>Ag-Chem and Ag-Tech</h2>
<p>Good times for domestic ag looks to continue. Commodity prices were helped by both, strong internal demand and international demand.&nbsp;Exports of U.S. farm and food products&nbsp;totaled $177 billion in 2021, an increase of 18% YoY, and 14.6% higher than the previous record set in in 2014. Chinese purchases were a key driver of export growth, despite all the trade-deficit rhetoric. Furthermore, with LATAM supply expectations reduced by the current drought in parts of Brazil, Argentina and Paraguay,&nbsp;Chinese purchases&nbsp;have not only continued in 2022, but may be ramping up. All that is setting the stage for continuation of the 15-month trend of the Creighton University’s&nbsp;Rural Mainstreet Index (RMI)&nbsp;remaining above growth-neutral, with rural bank CEOs expecting this to continue through the 2021-22 season. That is indeed good news because higher farmer cash incomes in 2021, and expectations for above-normal prices in row crops such as soybean and corn in 2022, will help farmers deal with record high input costs, including fertilizers and crop chemicals such as insecticides and herbicides. In fact, it may not be the price but the availability of key inputs that could be the fly in the ointment when it comes to farm economy this year.&nbsp;Bayer’s announced force majeure&nbsp;in glyphosate is a case in point.</p>
<h2>In Other News</h2>
<p>Ag-bio industry leaders continue to partner with established ag-chem majors. Marrone Bio Solutions (NASDAQ: MBII), an innovative ag-tech company, recently&nbsp;announced the signing of an exclusive distribution agreement&nbsp;with CTVA that gives Corteva exclusive license to distribute MBII’s Kinsidro® Grow product, a novel foliar bionutrient, across European markets. The multi-year agreement applies to row crops such as corn, soybeans, wheat, and cotton, and further expands the relationship between the two companies which began with the successful seed treatment agreement.</p>
<p>Industry reshuffling continues. Following the watershed merger of Dow Chemicals and Dupont, the subsequent spinoff of Corteva and Axalta, the divestiture of Dupont’s insecticide business to FMC, and other related divestitures, and the split up of the combined entity into two public companies once again, it seems DuPont (NYSE: DD) is still not done reshaping its portfolio. Last week, the company announced the&nbsp;sale of most of its Mobility and Materials segment&nbsp;to Celanese (NYSE: CE) for gross cash proceeds of $11 billion, or about 14x trailing EBITDA of the businesses being sold.</p>
<h2>Rating and Price Target Changes</h2>
<p>ALB&nbsp;– KeyBank raised its price target (PT) to $163 from $153, and reiterated its Underweight recommendation; Jefferies lowered its PT to $290 from $325, but reiterated its Buy rating; Wells Fargo lowered its PT to $215 from $260, while maintaining its Equal Weight recommendation; BMO also lowered its PT from $300 to $280 and reiterated its Outperform rating; Deutsche Bank dropped its PT from $305 to $250, but reiterated its Buy rating; Mizuho Securities reduced its PT from $281 to $243 and maintained its Neutral rating.</p>
<p>ECL&nbsp;– JP Morgan upgraded the stock to Neutral from Underperform despite reducing its PT to $191 from $230; Citigroup also lowered its PT to $205 from $220 and maintained its Neutral rating; Credit Suisse lowered its PT to $215 from $255, maintaining its Neutral rating; Deutsche Bank cut its PT to $2210 from $230, but reiterated its Buy recommendation; Morgan Stanley reduced PT to $200 from $240, maintaining its Equal Weight recommendation.</p>
<p>PLL&nbsp;– R. Riley raised its PT to $163 from $153 and reiterated its Buy rating.</p>
<h2>DISCLOSURES</h2>
<p>Water Tower Research (“WTR”) is a professional publisher of investment research reports on public companies and, to a lesser extent, private firms (“the Companies”). WTR provides investor-focused content and digital distribution strategies designed to help companies communicate with investors.<br><br>WTR is not a registered investment adviser or a broker/dealer nor does WTR provide investment banking services. WTR operates as an exempt investment adviser under the so called “publishers’ exemption” from the definition of investment adviser under Section 202(a)(11) of the Investment Advisers Act of 1940. WTR does not provide investment ratings / recommendations or price targets on the companies it reports on. Readers are advised that the research reports are published and provided solely for informational purposes and should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy securities or the rendering of investment advice. The information provided in this report should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as personalized advice. All users and readers of WTR’s reports are cautioned to consult their own independent financial, tax and legal advisors prior to purchasing or selling securities.<br><br>Dmitry Silversteyn, who is the writer of this report, covers the Chemicals &amp; Materials Technology and BioEconomy sectors for WTR. Mr. Silversteyn and members of his household have no personal or business-related relationship to the subject company other than providing digital content and any ancillary services WTR may offer.<br><br>Unless otherwise indicated, WTR intends to provide continuing coverage of the covered companies. WTR will notify its readers through website postings or other appropriate means if WTR determines to terminate coverage of any of the companies covered.<br><br>In certain instances, including this report, WTR will write research covering non-clients. Readers should assume that WTR may seek to turn these non-paying companies into paying clients. Likewise, WTR may seek to transform these non-clients into paying clients of it or of its affiliate, which provides services such as presenting at sponsored investor conferences, distributing press releases, advising on investor relations and broader corporate communications and public relations strategies as well as performing certain other related services (“Ancillary Services”). The companies that WTR covers in our research are not required to purchase or use Ancillary Services of WTR or an affiliate might offer to clients.<br><br>The manner of WTR’s potential research compensation and Ancillary Services to covered companies raise actual and perceived conflicts of interest. WTR is committed to manage those conflicts to protect its reputation and the objectivity of employees/analysts by adhering to strictly written compliance guidelines.<br><br>The views and analyses included in our research reports are based on current public information that we consider to be reliable, but no representation or warranty, expressed or implied, is made as to their accuracy, completeness, timeliness, or correctness. Neither we nor our analysts, directors, officers, employees, representatives, independent contractors or agents shall be liable for any omissions, errors or inaccuracies, regardless of cause, foreseeability or the lack of timeliness of, or any delay or interruptions in the transmission of our reports to content users. This lack of liability extends to direct, indirect, incidental, exemplary, compensatory, punitive, special or consequential damages, costs, expenses, legal fees, losses, lost income, lost profit or opportunity costs.<br><br>All investment information contained herein should be independently verified by the reader or user of this report. For additional information, all readers of this report are encouraged to visit WTR’s website www.watertowerresearch.com.</p>

KEY HIGHLIGHTS

WTR-CMI last week. Despite a (17.5%) drop in the ALB stock price, our WTR-CMI index of 30 chemicals and materials technology companies appreciated 0.5% last week. That’s well ahead of the (1.0%) dip in the Russell 2000 and another (1.6%) in the S&amp;P 500 (1.6%). YTD, our index is also outperforming the broader markets by losing less (7.4%) compared with (8.8%) by the S&amp;P 500 and (10.5%) by the Russell 2000. Nevertheless, there is no escaping the conclusion that the market, and our sector, may be in a correction phase, with weaker performance likely to continue now that geopolitical concerns are added to economic and fiscal considerations.
Winners and losers. Dec-Q results and 2022 management guidance continue to serve as catalysts for stock price movement as the earnings season winds down. Better outlook by IOSP drove the stock up 8.9% last week, leading the way in our index. MTRN also provided above-expectation guidance and appreciated 5.5% as a result, while ECVT and KWR benefited from investor expectations of solid results in the days ahead. Despite beating expectations and providing stronger lithium price and revenue guidance for 2022, the ALB stock dropped ~20% before recovering slightly, as higher capex and negative FCF outlook for the next 12-18 months surprised investors. Lower-than-anticipated guidance also dragged ECL down (3.1%), while PLL and other lithium stocks—LAC and LTHM—followed ALB’s lead down.
Demand trigger. Market research firm MarketsandMarkets published a report forecasting the&nbsp;global antimicrobial coatings market would grow&nbsp;at a 10.5% CAGR over the next five years, driven by COVID-19-related concerns in several industrial applications. This would be a positive for major coating manufacturers such as SHW and PPG, as well as specialty coatings producers such as RPM.
France getting in on domestic lithium bandwagon. In a recent interview,&nbsp;French environment minister noted&nbsp;the need for the country to develop its own lithium supplies to avoid overreliance on China (or other European Union nations, for that matter). While exploratory work is in the early stages, the French government’s willingness to embrace metal mining is a stark contrast to Serbia’s recent decision to buckle to anti-mining protests and revoke Rio Tinto’s mining license.

WTR-CMI WEEKLY PERFORMANCE
Source: Y-Charts; Prices as of February 18 close

Lithium &amp; EV Ecosystem Developments
Going to California. Last week, we mentioned the need for significant expansion of capacity to recycle end-of-life lithium-ion batteries in the U.S. as well as globally, and highlighted some of the partnerships being formed across the lithium supply-chain industry to accelerate the development of economically viable battery recycling and lithium/metal reclamation processes and operations. On cue, Ford Motor (NYSE: F) and Volvo Cars, a unit of Chinese Geely Automobile (OTC: GELYF), announced that they are&nbsp;joining Redwood Materials, a recycling startup&nbsp;to develop processes to collect end-of-life batteries from electric and hybrid vehicles and recover the materials for re-use in new batteries. The venture will start in California—not surprising, given the state leads the nation in BEV and PHEV vehicle sales, and existing NEV car park.
Automotive &amp; Transportation
January results suggest 1H22 will be a tough period for autos and those who supply them.&nbsp;While January&nbsp;sales in China&nbsp;improved 6.7% YoY after the market posted a 2% growth in December 2021,&nbsp;European sales decelerated&nbsp;(6.7%) YoY, continuing the YoY declines in monthly sales seen for most of 2H21. VW expects higher car production to be a 2H22 event, and growth in 2022 will still leave the automotive industry below 2019 levels. So it would seem companies such as AXTA and PPG, which derive 30-60% of their revenues from the transportation market—as well as companies such as FUL, AVNT, RPM, MTRN, HXL and others that count on the growth of the automotive market to drive sales of their higher-margin specialty products—may see results that underwhelm expectations in 1Q22 and, particularly, in 2Q22, which will include the toughest YoY comps. With European Union auto registrations down YoY in January (and we suspect U.S. sales will show a similar YoY decline, when reported) and March comps being significantly tougher, chances of a positive YoY volume 1Q22 appear to have significantly diminished. So it’s a good thing that prices are going up.
Ag-Chem and Ag-Tech
Good times for domestic ag looks to continue. Commodity prices were helped by both, strong internal demand and international demand.&nbsp;Exports of U.S. farm and food products&nbsp;totaled $177 billion in 2021, an increase of 18% YoY, and 14.6% higher than the previous record set in in 2014. Chinese purchases were a key driver of export growth, despite all the trade-deficit rhetoric. Furthermore, with LATAM supply expectations reduced by the current drought in parts of Brazil, Argentina and Paraguay,&nbsp;Chinese purchases&nbsp;have not only continued in 2022, but may be ramping up. All that is setting the stage for continuation of the 15-month trend of the Creighton University’s&nbsp;Rural Mainstreet Index (RMI)&nbsp;remaining above growth-neutral, with rural bank CEOs expecting this to continue through the 2021-22 season. That is indeed good news because higher farmer cash incomes in 2021, and expectations for above-normal prices in row crops such as soybean and corn in 2022, will help farmers deal with record high input costs, including fertilizers and crop chemicals such as insecticides and herbicides. In fact, it may not be the price but the availability of key inputs that could be the fly in the ointment when it comes to farm economy this year.&nbsp;Bayer’s announced force majeure&nbsp;in glyphosate is a case in point.
In Other News
Ag-bio industry leaders continue to partner with established ag-chem majors. Marrone Bio Solutions (NASDAQ: MBII), an innovative ag-tech company, recently&nbsp;announced the signing of an exclusive distribution agreement&nbsp;with CTVA that gives Corteva exclusive license to distribute MBII’s Kinsidro® Grow product, a novel foliar bionutrient, across European markets. The multi-year agreement applies to row crops such as corn, soybeans, wheat, and cotton, and further expands the relationship between the two companies which began with the successful seed treatment agreement.
Industry reshuffling continues. Following the watershed merger of Dow Chemicals and Dupont, the subsequent spinoff of Corteva and Axalta, the divestiture of Dupont’s insecticide business to FMC, and other related divestitures, and the split up of the combined entity into two public companies once again, it seems DuPont (NYSE: DD) is still not done reshaping its portfolio. Last week, the company announced the&nbsp;sale of most of its Mobility and Materials segment&nbsp;to Celanese (NYSE: CE) for gross cash proceeds of $11 billion, or about 14x trailing EBITDA of the businesses being sold.
Rating and Price Target Changes
ALB&nbsp;– KeyBank raised its price target (PT) to $163 from $153, and reiterated its Underweight recommendation; Jefferies lowered its PT to $290 from $325, but reiterated its Buy rating; Wells Fargo lowered its PT to $215 from $260, while maintaining its Equal Weight recommendation; BMO also lowered its PT from $300 to $280 and reiterated its Outperform rating; Deutsche Bank dropped its PT from $305 to $250, but reiterated its Buy rating; Mizuho Securities reduced its PT from $281 to $243 and maintained its Neutral rating.
ECL&nbsp;– JP Morgan upgraded the stock to Neutral from Underperform despite reducing its PT to $191 from $230; Citigroup also lowered its PT to $205 from $220 and maintained its Neutral rating; Credit Suisse lowered its PT to $215 from $255, maintaining its Neutral rating; Deutsche Bank cut its PT to $2210 from $230, but reiterated its Buy recommendation; Morgan Stanley reduced PT to $200 from $240, maintaining its Equal Weight recommendation.
PLL&nbsp;– R. Riley raised its PT to $163 from $153 and reiterated its Buy rating.
DISCLOSURES
Water Tower Research (“WTR”) is a professional publisher of investment research reports on public companies and, to a lesser extent, private firms (“the Companies”). WTR provides investor-focused content and digital distribution strategies designed to help companies communicate with investors.  WTR is not a registered investment adviser or a broker/dealer nor does WTR provide investment banking services. WTR operates as an exempt investment adviser under the so called “publishers’ exemption” from the definition of investment adviser under Section 202(a)(11) of the Investment Advisers Act of 1940. WTR does not provide investment ratings / recommendations or price targets on the companies it reports on. Readers are advised that the research reports are published and provided solely for informational purposes and should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy securities or the rendering of investment advice. The information provided in this report should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as personalized advice. All users and readers of WTR’s reports are cautioned to consult their own independent financial, tax and legal advisors prior to purchasing or selling securities.  Dmitry Silversteyn, who is the writer of this report, covers the Chemicals &amp; Materials Technology and BioEconomy sectors for WTR. Mr. Silversteyn and members of his household have no personal or business-related relationship to the subject company other than providing digital content and any ancillary services WTR may offer.  Unless otherwise indicated, WTR intends to provide continuing coverage of the covered companies. WTR will notify its readers through website postings or other appropriate means if WTR determines to terminate coverage of any of the companies covered.  In certain instances, including this report, WTR will write research covering non-clients. Readers should assume that WTR may seek to turn these non-paying companies into paying clients. Likewise, WTR may seek to transform these non-clients into paying clients of it or of its affiliate, which provides services such as presenting at sponsored investor conferences, distributing press releases, advising on investor relations and broader corporate communications and public relations strategies as well as performing certain other related services (“Ancillary Services”). The companies that WTR covers in our research are not required to purchase or use Ancillary Services of WTR or an affiliate might offer to clients.  The manner of WTR’s potential research compensation and Ancillary Services to covered companies raise actual and perceived conflicts of interest. WTR is committed to manage those conflicts to protect its reputation and the objectivity of employees/analysts by adhering to strictly written compliance guidelines.  The views and analyses included in our research reports are based on current public information that we consider to be reliable, but no representation or warranty, expressed or implied, is made as to their accuracy, completeness, timeliness, or correctness. Neither we nor our analysts, directors, officers, employees, representatives, independent contractors or agents shall be liable for any omissions, errors or inaccuracies, regardless of cause, foreseeability or the lack of timeliness of, or any delay or interruptions in the transmission of our reports to content users. This lack of liability extends to direct, indirect, incidental, exemplary, compensatory, punitive, special or consequential damages, costs, expenses, legal fees, losses, lost income, lost profit or opportunity costs.  All investment information contained herein should be independently verified by the reader or user of this report. For additional information, all readers of this report are encouraged to visit WTR’s website www.watertowerresearch.com.

Compass Minerals International, Inc (CMP US)

Mat-Chem Notes for the Week Ended February 20, 2022