Still Too Early to Buy Emerging Equities Given the Deteriorating Outlook for China and India

Growing Risks of a Crisis of Confidence in Chinese Policy Settings

Global Asset Allocation, Politics & Governance, Ecstrat

John-Paul Smith

Global Asset Allocation, Politics & Governance

Ecstrat

Ecstrat is a consultancy advising on asset allocation between global equity markets, with a focus on the intersection of governments, geopolitics, governance and markets.
 
Over the past few years and more especially since the Great Financial Crisis (GFC), investors have become more focused on short-term market movements and real-time returns and have consequently neglected the analysis of the underlying structural themes that underpin longer term performance.
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More specifically we believe that the evolution of governance-based relationships between investors, controlling shareholders, labour and the state is one of the primary determinants of both relative and absolute performance between individual equity markets.
 
We will endeavour to provide investors with some of the context surrounding governance-related issues which encompass many different disciplines including history, economics and political science, as well as the financial metrics which are the most obvious manifestation of the structural characteristics of each market.
 
We will pay particular attention to the shifts and potential inflection points for governance in individual markets as these are often the best lead indicators for both economic and market performance.

Cross Asset Strategy

<p>The major political event in the emerging market universe over the past month has undoubtedly been the victory of the four-party Pakatan Harapan coalition over former Prime Minister, Najib Razak’s United Malays National Organisation (UMNO) in the Malaysian general election (for a first-hand account of this by our friend, who was an active participant in the election campaign, please contact <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/1628" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:1628">Dr. Jim Walker</a> at Asianomics).</p><p>Given the very divisive and allegedly corrupt nature of Razak’s…</p>

The major political event in the emerging market universe over the past month has undoubtedly been the victory of the four-party Pakatan Harapan coalition over former Prime Minister, Najib Razak’s United Malays National Organisation (UMNO) in the Malaysian general election (for a first-hand account of this by our friend, who was an active participant in the election campaign, please contact Dr. Jim Walker at Asianomics).Given the very divisive and allegedly corrupt nature of Razak’s…

Malaysia: Can Mahathir Let Go - The Corporate Sector and the Game of Patronage