JL Warren Capital

JL Warren Capital LLC is a leading independent equity research firm focused on Chinese companies and listed multinationals in China. We employ a bottom-up research approach that takes great care to avoid the acquisition of material non-public information. Through investigative due diligence including channel surveys and interviews, our research helps clients to pinpoint the dislocations in the market.

Investment Advisors

Junket Liquidity Drives Macau Gaming Momentum; Stocks Upside Hinges upon Mass Growth

Buy Macau to Play China's Belt-Road Initiative - Macau Gaming and Chinese Outbound Tourism Q1 Review

Nagacorp: One of the Uncut Gems Left in the Asian Gaming Space, Ready to Sparkle Soon

Investment Advisors, JL Warren Capital

Junheng Li

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

China Consumer discretionary / Thematic (Sector/Industry)

Robust Inbound Visitation Growth from Mainland China; Accelerating VIP Rolling MomentumWe estimate that the Average Daily Revenue (ADR) in Macau for first half of July (1st- 15th) impressively reached ~ MOP800, up 10% YoY despite the distraction of the final week in FIFA World Cup Russia.  We expect that during the second half of July GGR growth is likely to reach 19% YoY, faster than in May before the World Cup.  Break downing the segment of GGR, we estimate that VIP grew ~12 YoY, and mass grew ~20% YoY in July.  VIP GGR growth rate was dragged down by a very high win rate of 3.3% during the same period last July, which was ~15% higher than the normal win rate of 2.85%.

Robust Inbound Visitation Growth from Mainland China; Accelerating VIP Rolling MomentumWe estimate that the Average Daily Revenue (ADR) in Macau for first half of July (1st- 15th) impressively reached ~ MOP800, up 10% YoY despite the distraction of the final week in FIFA World Cup Russia.  We expect that during the second half of July GGR growth is likely to reach 19% YoY, faster than in May before the World Cup.  Break downing the segment of GGR, we estimate that VIP grew ~12 YoY, and mass grew ~20% YoY in July.  VIP GGR growth rate was dragged down by a very high win rate of 3.3% during the same period last July, which was ~15% higher than the normal win rate of 2.85%. 

Macau VIP Slowdown? We See Opposite!