JL Warren Capital

JL Warren Capital LLC is a leading independent equity research firm focused on Chinese companies and listed multinationals in China. We employ a bottom-up research approach that takes great care to avoid the acquisition of material non-public information. Through investigative due diligence including channel surveys and interviews, our research helps clients to pinpoint the dislocations in the market.

Investment Advisors

Trump-Xi Talk, Halting Deleveraging Provides ST Relief, Stock Performance Divergence to Follow

2018 China’s Singles’ Day GMV Review - First Cut

Private Sector Boost/Bloomberg NEF/Wuzhen Internet Forum/Import Expo/Economy Woes

Investment Advisors, JL Warren Capital

Junheng Li

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

China Consumer discretionary / Thematic (Sector/Industry)

According to the industry consultants who guide bank analysts with weekly gaming revenue in Macau, GGR grew 22% during the first 7-days in October, totaling 9.1 billion MOP.  We believe that the data is likely to be inflated judging by the declining trend in VIP rolling towards the end of the holiday.  Junket contacts told us that starting in September, some patrons have canceled their scheduled trips to Macau on Oct 6th/Saturday and Oct 7th/Sunday VIP, triggering a year-over-year decline trend since then.  We suspect that the waning demand from VIP gamers is a delayed manifestation of a slowing mainland economy, declining housing prices in some markets, a tumbling A-share market and lack of confidence among wealthy Chinese.  Sluggish demand, especially in larger ticket consumption is broad based across many sectors such as homes, cars, and luxury retailers in H2.

According to the industry consultants who guide bank analysts with weekly gaming revenue in Macau, GGR grew 22% during the first 7-days in October, totaling 9.1 billion MOP.  We believe that the data is likely to be inflated judging by the declining trend in VIP rolling towards the end of the holiday.  Junket contacts told us that starting in September, some patrons have canceled their scheduled trips to Macau on Oct 6th/Saturday and Oct 7th/Sunday VIP, triggering a year-over-year decline trend since then.  We suspect that the waning demand from VIP gamers is a delayed manifestation of a slowing mainland economy, declining housing prices in some markets, a tumbling A-share market and lack of confidence among wealthy Chinese.  Sluggish demand, especially in larger ticket consumption is broad based across many sectors such as homes, cars, and luxury retailers in H2. 

Macau VIP Rolling Dips, Reduce Exposure to Gaming Stocks