External broker reports(aggregated public sources), HDFC Securities

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External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Equity Bottom-Up

<p>We tweak our estimates by -3%/+4% for FY22/23e and revise the TP to INR1,220. Downgrade to ADD. Lupins 4Q sales/EBITDA was ~5%/9% below our estimates, largely on account of subdued US (+4% QoQ, weak flu season offset Albuterol contribution) and weak API business (-22% YoY). EBITDA margin at 18.7% remained flat QoQ. Management guided for double-digit growth in key markets (India and US) in FY22 and EBITDA margin improvement to 21-22% by FY23 (vs. 17.2% in FY21). We continue to remain positive on Lupins ability to execute and monetise its complex pipeline in the US (inhalers and complex injectables).</p>

We tweak our estimates by -3%/+4% for FY22/23e and revise the TP to INR1,220. Downgrade to ADD. Lupins 4Q sales/EBITDA was ~5%/9% below our estimates, largely on account of subdued US (+4% QoQ, weak flu season offset Albuterol contribution) and weak API business (-22% YoY). EBITDA margin at 18.7% remained flat QoQ. Management guided for double-digit growth in key markets (India and US) in FY22 and EBITDA margin improvement to 21-22% by FY23 (vs. 17.2% in FY21). We continue to remain positive on Lupins ability to execute and monetise its complex pipeline in the US (inhalers and complex injectables).

Lupin (4QFY21): Positives in the price. Downgrade to ADD

Lupin Ltd

Lupin (4QFY21): Positives in the price. Downgrade to ADD