Asia Economist and CEO, Centennial Asia Advisors

Manu Bhaskaran

Mr. Bhaskaran is a leading Asian economist based in Singapore with more than 30 years of experience in studying economic, political and security issues that shape the business environment in Asia. He co-ordinates the Asian business of Washington DC-based strategic advisory firm, Centennial Group, directing its Asian economic research practice which provides in-depth analysis of macro trends in Asia. He works extensively with investment institutions, government agencies and corporations. Mr. Bhaskaran regularly presents his views on the economic, political and business environment in Asia at business conferences and in-house briefings. He has conducted studies on a wide range of subjects including: consumer finance in Asia; Asian integration; regional and country-specific political and economic outlooks; the Impact of China on Asia; portfolio capital flows in emerging markets, amongst many others. He is as a member of the Regional Advisory Group for Asia and the Pacific of the International Monetary Fund. Mr. Bhaskaran is a regular columnist for The Edge (Singapore) and holds positions in think tanks including being Adjunct Senior Research Fellow at the Institute of Policy Studies (IPS); Vice President of the Economics Society of Singapore, and Council Member of the Singapore Institute of International Affairs (SIIA). Mr. Bhaskaran serves on the boards of CIMB Investment Bank and Japfa Limited.

Asia Economist and CEO

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Centennial Asia Advisors

At Centennial Asia Advisors, we tell it like it is. We have no vested interests, no need for a China wall, and no reason to skew our outlook any other way. With over 30 years experience covering Asia’s political economy, you can be sure our conclusions and analyses are based on the unadulterated facts. Through years of fine-tuning our research methodologies, we deliver a quality of macroeconomic analysis few other houses can match.

Centennial Asia Advisors is an independent research and advisory firm that works with governments, multilateral institutions, financial firms and leading MNCs.

Economic Policy and Strategic Advisors

Macroeconomics

<ul style="list-style-type: square;">
<li>Currently, external demand is helping to offset some of the drag on demand caused by the stringent restrictions brought in to contain the surges of infections across the region.</li>
<li>Our forward indicator for Asian exports, however, is turning down, signalling some deceleration in the second half. Coming months will also see continued weakness in domestic demand as lockdowns remain in place.</li>
<li>Further ahead, we still believe the end of the year will see a pickup – as governments ease lockdowns and as more people are vaccinated, as our projections below, conditioned on a few assumptions, show.</li>
</ul>Projections for Vaccination Across Emerging Asia<table class="table table-striped"><tbody>
<tr>
<td style="width: 90.15pt;"> </td>
<td colspan="2" style="width: 180.3pt;">Vaccination rates (% of population)</td>
<td colspan="2" style="width: 180.35pt;">Projection (% fully vaccinated)</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 90.15pt;"> </td>
<td style="width: 90.15pt;">1st Dose</td>
<td style="width: 90.15pt;">2nd Dose</td>
<td style="width: 90.15pt;">1st October</td>
<td style="width: 90.2pt;">End-2021</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 90.15pt;">China*</td>
<td colspan="2" style="width: 180.3pt;">61.5%</td>
<td style="width: 90.15pt;">93.6%</td>
<td style="width: 90.2pt;">100%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 90.15pt;">India</td>
<td style="width: 90.15pt;">28.9%</td>
<td style="width: 90.15pt;">8.2%</td>
<td style="width: 90.15pt;">13.4%</td>
<td style="width: 90.2pt;">22.2%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 90.15pt;">Indonesia</td>
<td style="width: 90.15pt;">18.4%</td>
<td style="width: 90.15pt;">8.6%</td>
<td style="width: 90.15pt;">16.7%</td>
<td style="width: 90.2pt;">30.3%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 90.15pt;">Malaysia</td>
<td style="width: 90.15pt;">48.6%</td>
<td style="width: 90.15pt;">26.6%</td>
<td style="width: 90.15pt;">64.4%</td>
<td style="width: 90.2pt;">100%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 90.15pt;">Philippines</td>
<td style="width: 90.15pt;">11.6%</td>
<td style="width: 90.15pt;">9.9%</td>
<td style="width: 90.15pt;">18.6%</td>
<td style="width: 90.2pt;">32.4%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 90.15pt;">Singapore</td>
<td style="width: 90.15pt;">76.3%</td>
<td style="width: 90.15pt;">65.7%</td>
<td style="width: 90.15pt;">93.7%</td>
<td style="width: 90.2pt;">100%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 90.15pt;">Thailand</td>
<td style="width: 90.15pt;">21.8%</td>
<td style="width: 90.15pt;">6.1%</td>
<td style="width: 90.15pt;">20.4%</td>
<td style="width: 90.2pt;">43.4%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 90.15pt;">Vietnam</td>
<td style="width: 90.15pt;">8.3%</td>
<td style="width: 90.15pt;">0.9%</td>
<td style="width: 90.15pt;">16.3%</td>
<td style="width: 90.2pt;">41.3%</td>
</tr>
</tbody></table><div class="content-caption">Source: CEIC, Centennial Asia Advisors.</div>


Currently, external demand is helping to offset some of the drag on demand caused by the stringent restrictions brought in to contain the surges of infections across the region.
Our forward indicator for Asian exports, however, is turning down, signalling some deceleration in the second half. Coming months will also see continued weakness in domestic demand as lockdowns remain in place.
Further ahead, we still believe the end of the year will see a pickup – as governments ease lockdowns and as more people are vaccinated, as our projections below, conditioned on a few assumptions, show.
Projections for Vaccination Across Emerging Asia

 
Vaccination rates (% of population)
Projection (% fully vaccinated)


 
1st Dose
2nd Dose
1st October
End-2021


China*
61.5%
93.6%
100%


India
28.9%
8.2%
13.4%
22.2%


Indonesia
18.4%
8.6%
16.7%
30.3%


Malaysia
48.6%
26.6%
64.4%
100%


Philippines
11.6%
9.9%
18.6%
32.4%


Singapore
76.3%
65.7%
93.7%
100%


Thailand
21.8%
6.1%
20.4%
43.4%


Vietnam
8.3%
0.9%
16.3%
41.3%

Source: CEIC, Centennial Asia Advisors.

Lockdowns Are Still In Vogue, but Rising Vaccination Rates Allow Asia To End 2021 On A Stronger Note