Laboratorios Farmacéuticos ROVI - Multiple growth drivers lie ahead

Following Laboratorios Farmacéuticos ROVI’s (ROVI’s) recent investor day, we have reviewed our near-term forecasts. Specifically, we upgrade our Becat (enoxaparin biosimilar) peak sales forecasts and increase toll manufacturing revenue growth rates for 2020/21, as we now have more confidence in the underlying demand for heparins and the pre-filled syringe business. Highlights from the investor day include a review of ROVI’s operational performance in the last few years, including successful development of Becat, positive data from proprietary ISM asset DORIA and the multiple catalysts expected in 2020–22 that we forecast will enable ROVI’s top-line sales to double to ~€600m in 2023. Next events include the ongoing Becat roll-out and EU and US submission of DORIA in Q120 and H220 respectively. We value ROVI at €1.42bn or €25.2 per share.