Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

The Tabbush Report: Asian bank research and consultancy, without the noise.

Daniel Tabbush has ~30 years experience analyzing Asia-Pacific banks, including HSBC, Standard Chartered, Japanese and Australian banks. His research and consulting focuses on global banking issues, including with banks in the US. He was the Head of Asian Bank research at the number one Asian brokerage CLSA for most of his career, overseeing coverage of 80 banks and 10 analysts in Asia-Pacific.

He has been highly ranked by Asiamoney, The Asset and Bloomberg, as well as by institutional investors focused on Asia. He continues to appear in press interviews with TVB in Hong Kong, and has appeared on CNBC in the past. He maintains an information-sharing agreement with Dr. Jim Walker of Asianomics, the foremost economist in Asia-Pacific, and Tabbush was an invited speaker on Asian banks at the Independent Research Summit in Hong Kong, during years 2013 and 2014.

Daniel started his own independent bank research and consultancy in 2012, under the banner name Tabbush Report. Since 2014, he has been a member of University of California San Diego Economics Leadership Council (ELC), supporting Economic students at the University through this alumni association, and providing guidance on Economics program develoment. Daniel grew up in Los Angeles, graduated from UCSD in Economics, cum laude and with Phi Beta Kappa honors. He lives with his family in Bangkok, and enjoys cooking, running and chess.

He is known for extolling the unusual positives of Japan’s mega banks in 2005, and the risks likely to hit HSBC from its U.S. subprime loan operations, in 2006.  More recently, when most were concerned with nearly all Western banks in late 2008, Tabbush highlighted the positive outlook for Standard Chartered Bank at that time. 

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 
 
Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, S&P Global Market Intelligence. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics.

Research and consultancy

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Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Equity Bottom-Up

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/126" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:126:1">Kotak Mahindra Bank (KMB IN</a>; Kotak) is the 13th largest financial company in India by assets, and yet in terms of branches, it ranks 25th of all banks. It is an aggressive lender, by any stretch.  Its loans are up 2.5x over the past three and a half years, through 2Q19.  Only <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/767" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:767:1">Yes Bank Ltd (YES IN)</a> and Edelweiss Finance report higher loan growth over the same period, of the 16 banks with full 2Q19 data. With a more complete population of India's banks, from FY14 through FY18, Kotak’s loan growth is higher than all major banks other than Yes Bank. The only more aggressive lenders are non-banking financial companies (NBFCs). We believe there is more risk not only to Kotak’s loan book, but also to its ability to maintain high growth. This is due to its finance-company like loan-to-deposit ratio (LDR), which is higher than all of India’s commercial banks, other than two. This is far more relevant today than before the IL&amp;FS debacle, as rolling over borrowings will become more difficult, more costly.

Kotak Mahindra Bank (KMB IN; Kotak) is the 13th largest financial company in India by assets, and yet in terms of branches, it ranks 25th of all banks. It is an aggressive lender, by any stretch.  Its loans are up 2.5x over the past three and a half years, through 2Q19.  Only Yes Bank Ltd (YES IN) and Edelweiss Finance report higher loan growth over the same period, of the 16 banks with full 2Q19 data. With a more complete population of India's banks, from FY14 through FY18, Kotak’s loan growth is higher than all major banks other than Yes Bank. The only more aggressive lenders are non-banking financial companies (NBFCs). We believe there is more risk not only to Kotak’s loan book, but also to its ability to maintain high growth. This is due to its finance-company like loan-to-deposit ratio (LDR), which is higher than all of India’s commercial banks, other than two. This is far more relevant today than before the IL&amp;FS debacle, as rolling over borrowings will become more difficult, more costly.

Kotak Mahindra Bank – Expect Muted Growth for This Adored Private Bank, as LDR Falls, as LLP Rise