Korea Economic Upswing and Earnings Outlook

Deputy Chief Economist

Sharmila Whelan

Independent and original Asian investment research

Aletheia Capital

Aletheia Capital (HK) Ltd. (previously known as Asianomics) combines the extensive knowledge of its experienced team with technology and regulatory changes to disrupt Global Markets business in Asia. The firm is completely independent with no conflicts of interest either on Investment Banking advisory or Capital Markets execution.

Macroeconomics

<p>In August 2011, Asian exports ex-China hit a record monthly high of US$317bn. For the next three years monthly exports ranged between US$295-305bn, but plunged below the US$290bn mark in February 2015. The trough of the plunge occurred in January 2016 when Asia ex-China exports hit US$257bn. Asia ex-China exports have been picking up ever since and by February this year overseas shipments had risen above the US$300bn mark for the first time since October 2014.</p><p>Export activity has gained traction through the course of 2017 with shipments hitting US$314bn in September (the latest month for which we have full regional trade data available). The outlook for Asian and Korean exporters is positive. Korea's export growth is set to accelerate, now that China's THAAD-inspired economic blockade has been lifted. Korean trade data show that, like elsewhere, it is China, Asean and Europe that are driving export demand. </p>

In August 2011, Asian exports ex-China hit a record monthly high of US$317bn. For the next three years monthly exports ranged between US$295-305bn, but plunged below the US$290bn mark in February 2015. The trough of the plunge occurred in January 2016 when Asia ex-China exports hit US$257bn. Asia ex-China exports have been picking up ever since and by February this year overseas shipments had risen above the US$300bn mark for the first time since October 2014.Export activity has gained traction through the course of 2017 with shipments hitting US$314bn in September (the latest month for which we have full regional trade data available). The outlook for Asian and Korean exporters is positive. Korea's export growth is set to accelerate, now that China's THAAD-inspired economic blockade has been lifted. Korean trade data show that, like elsewhere, it is China, Asean and Europe that are driving export demand. 

Korean Exports and Asian PMIs