Singapore Airlines: Further Positive Surprises to Come in 2H24 - Bigger Test in FY25

Korean Air: European Merger Review Decision Not Expected Until Mid-February

Korean Air: Earnings Remain Elevated but Premium May Continue to Unwind as Cargo Yields Re-Set

Founder & Managing Director, AIR Control Tower, AIR Control Tower

Neil Glynn

Founder & Managing Director, AIR Control Tower

AIR Control Tower

AIR Control Tower is an independent research and analysis platform. Its mission is to provide impactful insight and analysis across the global airline industry at a company and market level via detailed financial models to aid decision making for key stake holders at a time when risks have seldom, if ever, been higher and the global sector grapples with the imperative of funding de-carbonisation. Unique analysis forecasting global carrier-level earnings/cash flows, and restructuring/de-leveraging prospects, is designed to dynamically assess the health of the industry, predict surprises and identify potential requirements for third party support.

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<ul>
<li>Difficult for merger to receive approval in Europe, US and potentially Japan. But Korean Air financial recovery positions it well for the future.</li>
<li>Asiana vulnerable given it continues to struggle to make money, while its net debt is higher than 2019 revenues. South Korean precedent of focusing on one national champion in shipping.</li>
<li>Most M&amp;A destroys value. Strong argument for Korean continuing alone given stronger opportunities should Asiana be forced to retrench/cease ops, while Delta JV developmental potential attractive.</li>
</ul>


Difficult for merger to receive approval in Europe, US and potentially Japan. But Korean Air financial recovery positions it well for the future.
Asiana vulnerable given it continues to struggle to make money, while its net debt is higher than 2019 revenues. South Korean precedent of focusing on one national champion in shipping.
Most M&amp;A destroys value. Strong argument for Korean continuing alone given stronger opportunities should Asiana be forced to retrench/cease ops, while Delta JV developmental potential attractive.


Korean Air - Plan B Should Asiana Merger Fail to Gain Approval