Japan/Asia Long-Short, LightStream Research

Mio Kato

Over 15 years analysing Japanese and Asian stocks from a long/short perspective

I focus on cyclically driven sectors such as Gaming, Factory Automation and Autos

An eclectic background as a long-short analyst, upper management at a financial data startup through its listing, and as the founder of a team analysing big/alternative data, all of which supports independent and differentiated views... we hope

An appreciation for Mathematics drives the development of a "Micro-Quantamental" process which can provide a data-driven, historically-informed and semi-automated foundation upon which to layer more qualitative and judgemental analysis, thus improving investment decision-making speed and accuracy

Japan/Asia Long-Short

Kobe Steel: Disclosures Regarding Causes of and Steps to Prevent Reoccurrence of Improper Conduct

Kobe Steel: Visit Suggests Limited Fallout From Scandal, Upside to Guidance

After 50% Rise From Bottom Can Kobe Steel Rise Another 50%?

Kobe Steel Reaction Looking Overdone to Us Despite Significant Uncertainty

Kobe Steel: Analysing the Falsified Data Products and Potential Asset Sales

Kobe Steel: Not Quite an All Clear but Safety Issues Now Look Unlikely; Recalls Likely Limited

Kobe Steel: Update on 20 Oct Disclosures on ISO Standards, Heavy Plate and Internal Obstruction

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Bottom-Up

<p>We commented earlier that Kobe Steel's downward revision to recurrent profit guidance was too conservative and that the assumptions for the Steel and Construction Machinery segments in particular were highly unrealistic. If our analysis is correct, this puts the company at less than 7x PE and less than 5x EV/EBITDA before factoring in recall or compensation costs for products with falsified specifications. While these potential costs could have a large impact and represent a significant risk…</p>

We commented earlier that Kobe Steel's downward revision to recurrent profit guidance was too conservative and that the assumptions for the Steel and Construction Machinery segments in particular were highly unrealistic. If our analysis is correct, this puts the company at less than 7x PE and less than 5x EV/EBITDA before factoring in recall or compensation costs for products with falsified specifications. While these potential costs could have a large impact and represent a significant risk…

Kobe Steel: Steel and Construction Machinery Businesses Likely to Drive Recurrent Profit to JPY75bn

Kobe Steel Ltd

Kobe Steel: Steel and Construction Machinery Businesses Likely to Drive Recurrent Profit to JPY75bn