Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Aqila Ali

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>The company announced on the 17<sup>th</sup> of September that it plans to list on the Frankfurt stock exchange this year and could emerge as the second largest listing after Siemens Healthineers</li>
<li>The company does not expect to offer new shares to the investors in the IPO, offering only 25% of existing shares, giving the company a value of EUR12bn (USD13.9bn)</li>
<li>Thiele had been in discussions with peers such as ZF Friedrichshafen, Continental and Bosch on a potential buyout, although the plans didn’t work, as Thiele is quite persistent about holding the majority stake in the company</li>
<li>Knorr does not expect the share issue to help the company in its expansion needs such as future acquisitions. The company states that it has barely any debt and should be able to make cash deals for any potential acquisitions re-iterating the company’s stable financial position</li>
<li>The company expects its group sales to increase to between EUR 6.4 -6.6bn for FY2018 (3-6% YoY revenue growth) and EBITDA to reach between EUR1.1bn-1.3bn</li>
<li>Believing the company could make an EBITDA of at least EUR1.2bn by next year, slightly above EUR1.1bn last year, applying the estimated value of the business at 6bn (adjusting estimated market cap for net cash) would imply a 2019 EV/EBITDA multiple of around 12.4x. It seems that Knorr could look a touch expensive when compared to US suppliers like <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/10259" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10259:1">Wabco Holdings (WBC US)</a> (9.5x), although it may trade in line with certain European high margin peers such as <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/22282" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22282:1">Atlas Copco AB (ATCOA SS)</a> (11.9x) , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/22281" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22281:1">Assa Abloy AB (ASSAB SS)</a> (14.5x) and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/25024" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25024:1">Schindler Holding Ag (SCHN SW)</a> (14.8x) .</li>
</ul>


The company announced on the 17th of September that it plans to list on the Frankfurt stock exchange this year and could emerge as the second largest listing after Siemens Healthineers
The company does not expect to offer new shares to the investors in the IPO, offering only 25% of existing shares, giving the company a value of EUR12bn (USD13.9bn)
Thiele had been in discussions with peers such as ZF Friedrichshafen, Continental and Bosch on a potential buyout, although the plans didn’t work, as Thiele is quite persistent about holding the majority stake in the company
Knorr does not expect the share issue to help the company in its expansion needs such as future acquisitions. The company states that it has barely any debt and should be able to make cash deals for any potential acquisitions re-iterating the company’s stable financial position
The company expects its group sales to increase to between EUR 6.4 -6.6bn for FY2018 (3-6% YoY revenue growth) and EBITDA to reach between EUR1.1bn-1.3bn
Believing the company could make an EBITDA of at least EUR1.2bn by next year, slightly above EUR1.1bn last year, applying the estimated value of the business at 6bn (adjusting estimated market cap for net cash) would imply a 2019 EV/EBITDA multiple of around 12.4x. It seems that Knorr could look a touch expensive when compared to US suppliers like Wabco Holdings (WBC US) (9.5x), although it may trade in line with certain European high margin peers such as Atlas Copco AB (ATCOA SS) (11.9x) , Assa Abloy AB (ASSAB SS) (14.5x) and Schindler Holding Ag (SCHN SW) (14.8x) .


Knorr Bremse to List on the Frankfurt Stock Exchange by the End of This Year

Knorr-Bremse AG

Knorr Bremse to List on the Frankfurt Stock Exchange by the End of This Year