European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Jesús is an Insight Provider (Event-driven) on the Smartkarma network, where he looks across sectors at opportunities arising from securities mispricing (both credit and equity), share classes, bid announcements, prospective bids, and special situations. He has served as Economic and Business Advisor at the Spanish Congress in Madrid. Prior to that, he has worked in the City of London: as a Credit Analyst at Bloomberg; Event-driven associate at former boutique European Research; and doubled as Special Situations and Equity-linked VP (convertible bonds) at Merrill Lynch. Jesús has an MBA from the London Business School, a BA (Hons.) degree in Economics from the Complutense University in Madrid, and a BA (Hons.) in Law from U.N.E.D., also in Madrid.

Calisen IPO: Offer Price Indicates Discount to Base Case Valuation

Calisen IPO: Low-Risk Business Model at Attractive Price

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>KKR takes advantage of a the depressed share price of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/smart-metering-systems-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23459:1" rel="noopener">Smart Metering Systems (SMS LN)</a>  that operates a stable, cash generating and misunderstood defensive business with revenues linked to inflation.</li>
<li>KKR offers 955p (+8.31875p/share declared divi), a 40% premium 40%, 15x EV/24e EBITDA. 0.1% irrevocable undertakings is negligible (top ten shareholders own c.54%). A counteroffer and/or sweetening is possible.</li>
<li>Spread is 0.45%/1.52% (gross/annualised, assuming settlement by 29 March, including declared dividend). Turnover has been high since announcement. Risk/return seems attractive. Recommendation is <strong>long SMS LN</strong>.</li>
</ul>


KKR takes advantage of a the depressed share price of Smart Metering Systems (SMS LN)  that operates a stable, cash generating and misunderstood defensive business with revenues linked to inflation.
KKR offers 955p (+8.31875p/share declared divi), a 40% premium 40%, 15x EV/24e EBITDA. 0.1% irrevocable undertakings is negligible (top ten shareholders own c.54%). A counteroffer and/or sweetening is possible.
Spread is 0.45%/1.52% (gross/annualised, assuming settlement by 29 March, including declared dividend). Turnover has been high since announcement. Risk/return seems attractive. Recommendation is long SMS LN.


KKR/Smart Metering Systems: Agreed Cheap Offer