New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm

Forsyth Barr

We are proud to be a New Zealand owned firm, with 21 offices throughout the country and over 300 employees. We assist personal, institutional and corporate clients providing a full range of investment services.

Forsyth Barr is a foundation New Zealand Exchange firm (NZX) and accredited market participant. We have been confirmed by the Financial Markets Authority as a Qualifying Financial Entity (QFE).

Research is the cornerstone of our advice. We have one of New Zealand's leading teams of analysts. Our global affiliations ensure comprehensive research coverage of all major investment markets.

New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm, Forsyth Barr

Equity Bottom-Up

<h2>Kiwi Property Group AFFO guidance upgraded to 5.50-5.60cps</h2>
Kiwi Property Group (KPG) has increased its FY21 adjusted funds from operations (AFFO) guidance +8.7-12.2% to 5.50-5.60cps. Stronger than anticipated trading in its shopping malls has seen leasing outcomes and turnover rents ahead of KPGs expectations and rental abatements and doubtful debts lower than anticipated despite further COVID-19 disruptions. Implied 2H21 AFFO is 3.18-3.28cps which suggests a potential final distribution of 3.05cps based on a 95% payout. Annualising 2H21 DPS, KPG’s last close of NZ$1.18/share suggests a cash yield of 5.2% vs. a 12-month moving average cash yield of 4.9%.
FY21 AFFO guidance provided at the 1H21 result surprised us to the downside – variances between todays revised guidance and our current estimates would largely reverse the changes we made to our estimates following the 1H21 result. Revised FY21 guidance is +7.8-9.8% vs. our current forecasts. Annualising 2H21 gives a run-rate of 6.36-6.56cps or +4.0-7.3% vs. our current FY22E AFFO.
KPG will announce its FY21 result on 24 May.
Rohan Koreman-Smit&nbsp; Senior Analyst, Equities
<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://mail.google.com/mail/u/0?ui=2&amp;ik=f57c39853c&amp;attid=0.2&amp;permmsgid=msg-f:1693969754663391251&amp;th=178230844ef79013&amp;view=fimg&amp;sz=s0-l75-ft&amp;attbid=ANGjdJ84HZD7XNWgqe6Og8be4qwwZu0JjgKd7mtGtBQror9kC3MQQZZ8tAGgBb37EOBT48FoSOuYMhqRNeFu8_TYrdl9Iz7Xco-o7zALdtvBZA3_WEVt9zayHsPtqD8&amp;disp=emb" class="editor-image img-responsive"></figure>
 P: +64 9 368 0085 | TF: 0800 367 227&nbsp; Level 23, Lumley Centre, 88 Shortland Street, Auckland

Kiwi Property Group AFFO guidance upgraded to 5.50-5.60cps
Kiwi Property Group (KPG) has increased its FY21 adjusted funds from operations (AFFO) guidance +8.7-12.2% to 5.50-5.60cps. Stronger than anticipated trading in its shopping malls has seen leasing outcomes and turnover rents ahead of KPGs expectations and rental abatements and doubtful debts lower than anticipated despite further COVID-19 disruptions. Implied 2H21 AFFO is 3.18-3.28cps which suggests a potential final distribution of 3.05cps based on a 95% payout. Annualising 2H21 DPS, KPG’s last close of NZ$1.18/share suggests a cash yield of 5.2% vs. a 12-month moving average cash yield of 4.9%.
FY21 AFFO guidance provided at the 1H21 result surprised us to the downside – variances between todays revised guidance and our current estimates would largely reverse the changes we made to our estimates following the 1H21 result. Revised FY21 guidance is +7.8-9.8% vs. our current forecasts. Annualising 2H21 gives a run-rate of 6.36-6.56cps or +4.0-7.3% vs. our current FY22E AFFO.
KPG will announce its FY21 result on 24 May.
Rohan Koreman-Smit&nbsp; Senior Analyst, Equities

 P: +64 9 368 0085 | TF: 0800 367 227&nbsp; Level 23, Lumley Centre, 88 Shortland Street, Auckland

Kiwi Property Group (KPG): FY21 Guidance Upgraded