Asian Insight Provider - Actionable ideas, CrossASEAN Research

Henry Soediarko

A Long & Short Investment Ideas generator for Asian Equities with 10 years experience in a Hedge fund focused on bottom-up ideas, searching out mispriced ideas and misunderstood investment thesis. Provides on-the-ground insights in various Asian markets with a sway towards ASEAN. Experienced and survived the Asian Financial Crisis in a family business, as well as the Global Financial Crisis in financial markets where lessons learned. It's all about understanding business drivers and navigating business cycles, which has high applicability in generating investment ideas. 

Investment horizon: Mid to Long term

Asian Insight Provider - Actionable ideas

BYD Electronics (285): Where Is the Margin At?

Sido Muncul (SIDO): Past Is Not Indicative of Future

Sido Muncul (SIDO): Switch, Competitor and Split

Bluebird (BIRD): Correlated with PSBB, Beneficiary of WFH to WFO Switch

Mitra Keluarga (MIKA): Margin Expansion from COVID-19

Battle Lines Drawn As BABA Builds Out First/Last-Mile Capacity; But Who Will Fund 75+ Bn CNY CapEx?

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Equity Bottom-Up

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kimia-farma-persero-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8524:1" rel="noopener">Kimia Farma Persero (KAEF IJ)</a> share price astronomic rise has benefited from the COVID-19 panic reaction and its position of being the government distributor for surgical masks throughout the country. Investors were expecting that the surgical masks to be sold at a premium price but the reality is the government instructed the company to sell at Rp 100,000 per box, instead of the overhyped price at Rp 500,000 to 850,000 previously. 
Since its lows (Rp 600) on the 19th of March 2020, the share price has increased by 458% when it reached its high of Rp 3,350. After a couple of days of profit-taking, investors who bought at Rp 600 still made 3x at today's close price. 
At the beginning of the pandemic, people made their own masks from cloth. As surgical masks' availability has improved, some people still like cloth-based masks although clearly, this is not as effective as surgical masks. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sri-rejeki-isman-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20178:1" rel="noopener">Sri Rejeki Isman (SRIL IJ)</a> launched non-surgical but anti-microbial and water-resistant masks based on their own technology with a history of manufacturing army uniform with the same functionalities that I discussed in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/sritex-sril-undervalued-with-more-products-and-b2c" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:43490" rel="noopener">Sritex (SRIL): Undervalued with More Products and B2C</a> .
The most expensive stock in LQ45, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/perusahaan-gas-negara-perser" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1584:1" rel="noopener">Perusahaan Gas Negara Perser (PGAS IJ)</a> , is trading at 81x PER so Kimia Farma is really expensive at 190x PER on the back of the surgical mask distributors across Indonesia although the margin is very questionable given the market price for surgical masks have plummeted. 
For existing shareholder - it is really time to get out before the stock price plummets
For long-short investors - the stock is worth shorting for short term gains if there is borrow. Given the small market capitalization, borrow may be tough but the liquidity has improved (USD 5 million ADTV) thus there is a chance for borrow availability.

Kimia Farma Persero (KAEF IJ) share price astronomic rise has benefited from the COVID-19 panic reaction and its position of being the government distributor for surgical masks throughout the country. Investors were expecting that the surgical masks to be sold at a premium price but the reality is the government instructed the company to sell at Rp 100,000 per box, instead of the overhyped price at Rp 500,000 to 850,000 previously. 
Since its lows (Rp 600) on the 19th of March 2020, the share price has increased by 458% when it reached its high of Rp 3,350. After a couple of days of profit-taking, investors who bought at Rp 600 still made 3x at today's close price. 
At the beginning of the pandemic, people made their own masks from cloth. As surgical masks' availability has improved, some people still like cloth-based masks although clearly, this is not as effective as surgical masks. Sri Rejeki Isman (SRIL IJ) launched non-surgical but anti-microbial and water-resistant masks based on their own technology with a history of manufacturing army uniform with the same functionalities that I discussed in Sritex (SRIL): Undervalued with More Products and B2C .
The most expensive stock in LQ45, Perusahaan Gas Negara Perser (PGAS IJ) , is trading at 81x PER so Kimia Farma is really expensive at 190x PER on the back of the surgical mask distributors across Indonesia although the margin is very questionable given the market price for surgical masks have plummeted. 
For existing shareholder - it is really time to get out before the stock price plummets
For long-short investors - the stock is worth shorting for short term gains if there is borrow. Given the small market capitalization, borrow may be tough but the liquidity has improved (USD 5 million ADTV) thus there is a chance for borrow availability. 

Kimia Farma (KAEF): National Service Is Charity