Global Commodities Alternative Data and Insights

Helixtap

Helixtap collects, processes and distributes proprietary data, analyses and forecasts for the rubber, latex and automotive markets

Head of Content, Data & Research, Helixtap

Arusha Das

Head of Content, Data & Research

Commodities

<ul><li>IndicatorsFactors at playImpact termImpact on pricesChina stimulus announcements- Announcement of a package of 19 measures to support the economy  - Infusion of funds at 1 trillion yuan ($143.7 million)  - Improved factory activities  - The gradual recovery of domestic demand  - Normalization of China's logistics and industrial and supply chains  3-6 months Overall sentiment 🟢🟢 Physical prices - STR 20, AFR 10, SVR 20  - 🟢🟢 Margins 🟢China’s Zero Covid Policy & property sector - Sign of the virus showing a resurgence in China- More than two dozen Chinese cities to impose certain mobility restrictions- Covid-containment efforts are likely to be vigorously implemented in the coming weeks,- Factory activities will be impacted- China’s economy was weaker in August compared to July, so the economy likely to remain very weak until year-end3 monthsOverall sentiment 🔴🔴🔴 Physical prices - STR 20, SVR 20, AFR 10 🔴🔴 Margins 🔴🔴US Economy- The consumer price index rose 8.3% in August year-over-year- Core prices up 0.6% from m-o-m in August, excluding food and energy- Fed has been hiking rates for the past six months, and another steep hike likely - Slowdown in demand - Truck tire market steady demand expected, passenger car might be slightly under pressure3 monthsOverall sentiment 🔴🔴🔴 Physical prices - SIR 20, AFR 10 🔴🔴 Margins 🔴🔴European market - Higher energy prices - Spot natural gas prices have increased over 15-fold since 2021- Greater exposure to Russia’s geopolitical turmoil- Rising borrowing costs would slowdown in demand- Germany, Europe’s largest economy, contracted in August. - France, Italy, and Britain have a bleak outlook- A slowdown in demand for tire3 monthsOverall sentiment 🔴🔴🔴 Physical prices - SIR 20, AFR 10, STR 20 🔴🔴 Margins 🔴🔴🔴Russia/Ukraine conflict- Despite the limited presence in natural rubber, the six-month-old-war impacting the overall demand- Some retreat in the Russian attack - Synthetic rubber supply is impacted, disrupting tire production- Higher natural gas and oil prices pushing energy prices- Sanctions led to some cut back in tire production, yet to come back6 monthsOverall sentiment 🔴 Physical prices - SIR 20, AFR 10, STR 20, SVR 20 🔴 Margins 🔴Raw material supply and climate changes- Raw material imports, especially in Indonesia, weighed heavily on supply and prices - Rains and flood in Thailand but no impact on raw material supply - The shutdown of factories due to bear demand cues and consistent negative margins - Limited investment on the production side impacts yield in the longer run- Ample volume afloat in the market leading to a glut situation- Volume booked for LTC might see some changes if the market is in backwardation3 monthsOverall sentiment 🔴🔴🔴 Physical prices - SIR 20, AFR 10, SVR 20, STR 20 🔴🔴🔴 Margins 🔴🔴🔴Sustainability- Increasing demand for sustainable rubber by tire makers might weed out smaller producers- Limited investment on the production side - Reliance on imported raw material - Europe’s deforestation policy Overall sentiment 🔴🔴🔴Physical prices - SIR 20, AFR 10, SVR 20, STR 20 🔴🔴🔴Margins 🔴🔴🔴The gradualSource: Helixtap</li></ul>

IndicatorsFactors at playImpact termImpact on pricesChina stimulus announcements- Announcement of a package of 19 measures to support the economy  - Infusion of funds at 1 trillion yuan ($143.7 million)  - Improved factory activities  - The gradual recovery of domestic demand  - Normalization of China's logistics and industrial and supply chains  3-6 months Overall sentiment 🟢🟢 Physical prices - STR 20, AFR 10, SVR 20  - 🟢🟢 Margins 🟢China’s Zero Covid Policy & property sector - Sign of the virus showing a resurgence in China- More than two dozen Chinese cities to impose certain mobility restrictions- Covid-containment efforts are likely to be vigorously implemented in the coming weeks,- Factory activities will be impacted- China’s economy was weaker in August compared to July, so the economy likely to remain very weak until year-end3 monthsOverall sentiment 🔴🔴🔴 Physical prices - STR 20, SVR 20, AFR 10 🔴🔴 Margins 🔴🔴US Economy- The consumer price index rose 8.3% in August year-over-year- Core prices up 0.6% from m-o-m in August, excluding food and energy- Fed has been hiking rates for the past six months, and another steep hike likely - Slowdown in demand - Truck tire market steady demand expected, passenger car might be slightly under pressure3 monthsOverall sentiment 🔴🔴🔴 Physical prices - SIR 20, AFR 10 🔴🔴 Margins 🔴🔴European market - Higher energy prices - Spot natural gas prices have increased over 15-fold since 2021- Greater exposure to Russia’s geopolitical turmoil- Rising borrowing costs would slowdown in demand- Germany, Europe’s largest economy, contracted in August. - France, Italy, and Britain have a bleak outlook- A slowdown in demand for tire3 monthsOverall sentiment 🔴🔴🔴 Physical prices - SIR 20, AFR 10, STR 20 🔴🔴 Margins 🔴🔴🔴Russia/Ukraine conflict- Despite the limited presence in natural rubber, the six-month-old-war impacting the overall demand- Some retreat in the Russian attack - Synthetic rubber supply is impacted, disrupting tire production- Higher natural gas and oil prices pushing energy prices- Sanctions led to some cut back in tire production, yet to come back6 monthsOverall sentiment 🔴 Physical prices - SIR 20, AFR 10, STR 20, SVR 20 🔴 Margins 🔴Raw material supply and climate changes- Raw material imports, especially in Indonesia, weighed heavily on supply and prices - Rains and flood in Thailand but no impact on raw material supply - The shutdown of factories due to bear demand cues and consistent negative margins - Limited investment on the production side impacts yield in the longer run- Ample volume afloat in the market leading to a glut situation- Volume booked for LTC might see some changes if the market is in backwardation3 monthsOverall sentiment 🔴🔴🔴 Physical prices - SIR 20, AFR 10, SVR 20, STR 20 🔴🔴🔴 Margins 🔴🔴🔴Sustainability- Increasing demand for sustainable rubber by tire makers might weed out smaller producers- Limited investment on the production side - Reliance on imported raw material - Europe’s deforestation policy Overall sentiment 🔴🔴🔴Physical prices - SIR 20, AFR 10, SVR 20, STR 20 🔴🔴🔴Margins 🔴🔴🔴The gradualSource: Helixtap

Key Market Indicators  Bear Market In Short Mid Term

SGX Rubber Future TSR20

Key Market Indicators Bear Market In Short Mid Term