JDC Group - Lower FY22 guidance and estimates

JDC Group (JDC) reported Q322 numbers and lowered its guidance for FY22 revenues of €155–165m (previously €165–175m) and EBITDA of €7.5–9.5m (previously more than €11m). The new guidance implies 1.1% revenue growth and EBITDA of €2.0m at the midpoint in Q422 (Q421: €3.0m). Given the 12.4% revenue growth in January to September 2022, this guidance may prove conservative. As such, we have adjusted our estimates towards the upper end of the guided range. In our new estimates, JDC trades on EV/EBITDA of 16.6x in FY23e, which we see as undemanding for what is essentially a platform business. Our discounted cash flow calculation generates a valuation of €36.40 per share.