'Quantamental' Japan Specialist, LightStream Research

Campbell Gunn

Former Japan Equity PM with over 30 of experience now providing database-driven analysis of the market, sectors, peer groups and stocks for LightStream Research.

Leveraging data and graphic analysis provided by Japan Analytics, and the related Japan Analytics iPad App, we provide insights on companies are often ignored by the sell-side as well as challenging conventional wisdom on the market overall.

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 09/​​​​​​14 - Tsuruha, Kura Sushi, Arcland Sakamoto, JSR

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 09/​​​​​​​15  -Park[24]ing Woes, Life in Life | Keiyo▲, Palma▼

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 09/​​​​​​​​16 - Askul Begs a Question & East Japan [De]Rail[ed]way

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 09/​​​​08 - Net Positive, Stream, OSG, Subaru Ent., Beenos

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 09/​​​​10 - Sekisui House, Kobe Bussan, Japan Display, Kamakura Sh.

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 09/​​​​​09 - Ascentech, Tobila Systems, Beauty Garage, Azearth

Gravity Works As WeWork Doesn't; Now Plan B

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

Japan Industrials / Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/158/456/original/2020-09-12_13-08-43.png?1599883751" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="158456"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source for all Charts: Japan Analytics</div><p><strong>YET TO BOTTOM OUT</strong> - As we finish the first batch of results covering the period from May to July, our scoring of Results, Annual, and Interim Revisions has yet to see a bottoming out in momentum. Nevertheless, the market, aided by ample liquidity, has already discounted the first six months of a potential recovery. The market's optimism is supported by the Cabinet Office Leading Indicator of Business Conditions which, as of July, had seen two months of recovery.</p><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/158/458/original/2020-09-12_13-20-58.png?1599884472" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="158458"></figure><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/158/459/original/2020-09-12_13-31-24.png?1599885118" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="158459"></figure><p></p><hr><p style="text-align: center;"><strong>• BEST &amp; WORST •</strong></p><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/158/449/original/2020-09-12_10-38-08.png?1599874697" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="158449"></figure><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/158/451/original/2020-09-12_10-40-00.png?1599874819" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="158451"></figure><p>Our picks of the 'best' from Friday's announcements are logistics infrastructure company <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cre-inc-japan" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25924:1" rel="noopener">CRE (3458 JP)</a> and personal products provider <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ya-man-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16129:1" rel="noopener">Ya Man (6630 JP)</a>. The 'worst' results were from Ai gaming company <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/heroz-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27106:1" rel="noopener">Heroz (4382 JP)</a> and commercial design and display specialist <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tanseisha-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10898:1" rel="noopener">Tanseisha (9743 JP)</a>, the latter due to a severe downward revision for the full year. </p><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/158/452/original/2020-09-12_10-41-46.png?1599874918" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="158452"></figure><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/158/453/original/2020-09-12_10-43-21.png?1599875013" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="158453"></figure><p style="text-align: center;"></p><div>
<hr>
<p style="text-align: center;"><strong>DAILY STATS</strong></p>
</div><hr><div><div class="content-highlight"><p style="text-align: left;"><strong>PERCENTAGES</strong> -<strong>50%</strong> of quarterly results, <strong>66%</strong> of annual forecasts/revisions and<strong> 69%</strong> of interim forecasts have negative Scores. <strong>29%</strong> of companies reporting lost money for the quarter.</p></div></div><hr><div><p style="text-align: center;"><strong>48 Quarterly Results</strong></p></div><div><ul style="list-style-type: disc;">
<li>
<strong>Results Score:</strong> 46% Positive / 4% Neutral / 50% Negative</li>
<li>
<strong>Average Results Score Change:</strong> +0.9 points</li>
<li>
<strong>Average % Change in Revenue:</strong> -5.8% Quarter YoY / -3.7% Rolling TTM YoY </li>
<li>Average Operating Profit Margin Change: -4.1ppt</li>
<li>Percentage Making Quarterly Losses: 29%</li>
</ul></div><hr><div><p style="text-align: center;"><strong>29 Annual • 13 Interim Forecasts/Revisions</strong></p></div><div><ul style="list-style-type: disc;">
<li>
<strong>Annual Forecast/Revision Score:</strong> 31% Positive / 3% Neutral / 66% Negative</li>
<li>
<strong>Interim Forecast/Revision Score Change:</strong> 23% Positive / 8% Neutral / 69% Negative</li>
<li>
<strong>Average Forecast/Revision Score Change:</strong> -6.9 points</li>
</ul></div>

Source for all Charts: Japan AnalyticsYET TO BOTTOM OUT - As we finish the first batch of results covering the period from May to July, our scoring of Results, Annual, and Interim Revisions has yet to see a bottoming out in momentum. Nevertheless, the market, aided by ample liquidity, has already discounted the first six months of a potential recovery. The market's optimism is supported by the Cabinet Office Leading Indicator of Business Conditions which, as of July, had seen two months of recovery.• BEST &amp; WORST •Our picks of the 'best' from Friday's announcements are logistics infrastructure company CRE (3458 JP) and personal products provider Ya Man (6630 JP). The 'worst' results were from Ai gaming company Heroz (4382 JP) and commercial design and display specialist Tanseisha (9743 JP), the latter due to a severe downward revision for the full year. 

DAILY STATS
PERCENTAGES -50% of quarterly results, 66% of annual forecasts/revisions and 69% of interim forecasts have negative Scores. 29% of companies reporting lost money for the quarter.48 Quarterly Results

Results Score: 46% Positive / 4% Neutral / 50% Negative

Average Results Score Change: +0.9 points

Average % Change in Revenue: -5.8% Quarter YoY / -3.7% Rolling TTM YoY 
Average Operating Profit Margin Change: -4.1ppt
Percentage Making Quarterly Losses: 29%
29 Annual • 13 Interim Forecasts/Revisions

Annual Forecast/Revision Score: 31% Positive / 3% Neutral / 66% Negative

Interim Forecast/Revision Score Change: 23% Positive / 8% Neutral / 69% Negative

Average Forecast/Revision Score Change: -6.9 points


🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 09/​​​​​11 - CRE, Ya-Man, JM, Halows, Tanseisha

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 09/​​​​​11 - CRE, Ya-Man, JM, Halows, Tanseisha

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 09/11 - CRE, Ya-Man, JM, Halows, Tanseisha