'Quantamental' Japan Specialist, LightStream Research

Campbell Gunn

Former Japan Equity PM with over 30 of experience now providing database-driven analysis of the market, sectors, peer groups and stocks for LightStream Research.

Leveraging data and graphic analysis provided by Japan Analytics, and the related Japan Analytics iPad App, we provide insights on companies are often ignored by the sell-side as well as challenging conventional wisdom on the market overall.

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 09/​​​07 - A Tale of 'Two Foods' & Funeral Photos

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 09/​​​​08 - Net Positive, Stream, OSG, Subaru Ent., Beenos

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 09/​​​​​09 - Ascentech, Tobila Systems, Beauty Garage, Azearth

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 09/01 - Ito En, Ain, Ride On Express

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 09/​03 - (Far From Rocky) Raccoon, Rock Field & Artiza Networks

Gravity Works As WeWork Doesn't; Now Plan B

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

Japan Industrials / Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/157/299/original/2020-09-06_14-17-48.png?1599369500" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="157299"></figure>
<div class="content-caption">Source for all charts: Japan Analytics</div>
<p><strong>(It's a) </strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tea-life-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6199:1" rel="noopener"><strong>Tea Life  (3172 JP)</strong></a> - Micro-cap Tea Life combines two of the hottest market themes - online retailing and health food and has seen its shares rise 62% over the last month. Fourth-quarter operating margins fell year-on-year, and the initial forecasts for the current year are cautious. The market-implied growth rate of zero is too low; however, the company has yet to see any significant incremental returns for the debt-funded 160% increase in Net Operating Assets over the last four years. </p>
<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/157/301/original/2020-09-06_14-22-10.png?1599369747" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="157301"></figure>
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<p style="text-align: center;"><strong>DAILY STATS</strong></p>
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<p><strong>PERCENTAGES </strong>-<strong> 65%</strong> of quarterly results,<strong> 71%</strong> of annual forecasts/revisions and<strong> 57%</strong> of interim forecasts have negative Scores. <strong>43%</strong> of companies reporting lost money for the quarter.</p>
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<p style="text-align: center;"><strong>23 Quarterly Results</strong></p>
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<ul style="list-style-type: disc;">
<li>
<strong>Results Score:</strong> 30% Positive / 4% Neutral / 65% Negative</li>
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<strong>Average Results Score Change:</strong> -2.7 points</li>
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<strong>Average % Change in Revenue:</strong> -15.7% Quarter YoY / -6.8% Rolling TTM YoY </li>
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<strong>Average Operating Profit Margin Change:</strong> -1.9 ppt <strong><em>(ex tella)</em></strong>
</li>
<li>
<strong>Percentage Making Quarterly Losse</strong>s: 43%</li>
</ul>
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<p style="text-align: center;"><strong>17 Annual • 7 Interim Forecasts/Revisions</strong></p>
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<ul style="list-style-type: disc;">
<li>
<strong>Annual Forecast/Revision Score:</strong> 29% Positive / 0% Neutral / 71% Negative</li>
<li>
<strong>Interim Forecast/Revision Score Change:</strong> 43% Positive / 0% Neutral / 57% Negative</li>
<li>
<strong>Average Forecast/Revision Score Change: </strong>-6.3 points</li>
</ul>
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Source for all charts: Japan Analytics
(It's a) Tea Life  (3172 JP) - Micro-cap Tea Life combines two of the hottest market themes - online retailing and health food and has seen its shares rise 62% over the last month. Fourth-quarter operating margins fell year-on-year, and the initial forecasts for the current year are cautious. The market-implied growth rate of zero is too low; however, the company has yet to see any significant incremental returns for the debt-funded 160% increase in Net Operating Assets over the last four years. 



DAILY STATS



PERCENTAGES - 65% of quarterly results, 71% of annual forecasts/revisions and 57% of interim forecasts have negative Scores. 43% of companies reporting lost money for the quarter.



23 Quarterly Results




Results Score: 30% Positive / 4% Neutral / 65% Negative

Average Results Score Change: -2.7 points

Average % Change in Revenue: -15.7% Quarter YoY / -6.8% Rolling TTM YoY 

Average Operating Profit Margin Change: -1.9 ppt (ex tella)


Percentage Making Quarterly Losses: 43%




17 Annual • 7 Interim Forecasts/Revisions




Annual Forecast/Revision Score: 29% Positive / 0% Neutral / 71% Negative

Interim Forecast/Revision Score Change: 43% Positive / 0% Neutral / 57% Negative

Average Forecast/Revision Score Change: -6.3 points



🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 09/​​04 - (It's A) Tea Life, Kanamoto(& Nagawa), HI-LEX, SoftServ

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 09/​​04 - (It's A) Tea Life, Kanamoto(& Nagawa), HI-LEX, SoftServ

🇯🇵 JAPAN • Results & Revisions 09/04 - (It's A) Tea Life, Kanamoto(& Nagawa), HI-LEX, SoftServ