Deputy Chief Economist

Sharmila Whelan

Independent and original Asian investment research

Aletheia Capital

Aletheia Capital (HK) Ltd. (previously known as Asianomics) combines the extensive knowledge of its experienced team with technology and regulatory changes to disrupt Global Markets business in Asia. The firm is completely independent with no conflicts of interest either on Investment Banking advisory or Capital Markets execution.

Macroeconomics

<p>Japanese policymakers are panicking. Economic activity contracted in 3Q.  Inflation is slowing, up 0.8% YoY in December vs 1.4% YoY previously. Exports are flat lining. Unsurprisingly the BoJ left monetary policy unchanged this month while Abe’s cabinet, taking no chances approved a record initial budget for fiscal 2019 this week. We see few real signs of the economy slowing yet though. We remain overweight Japanese equities and are forecasting 1% nominal GDP growth in 2019, the same as the first three quarters of 2018.</p>

Japanese policymakers are panicking. Economic activity contracted in 3Q.  Inflation is slowing, up 0.8% YoY in December vs 1.4% YoY previously. Exports are flat lining. Unsurprisingly the BoJ left monetary policy unchanged this month while Abe’s cabinet, taking no chances approved a record initial budget for fiscal 2019 this week. We see few real signs of the economy slowing yet though. We remain overweight Japanese equities and are forecasting 1% nominal GDP growth in 2019, the same as the first three quarters of 2018.

Japan - Policymakers Panicking, We Are Not