'Quantamental' Japan Specialist, LightStream Research

Campbell Gunn

Former Japan Equity PM with over 30 of experience now providing database-driven analysis of the market, sectors, peer groups and stocks for LightStream Research.

Leveraging data and graphic analysis provided by Japan Analytics, and the related Japan Analytics iPad App, we provide insights on companies are often ignored by the sell-side as well as challenging conventional wisdom on the market overall.

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist

Japan: Moving Average Outliers - New Year Rally

Japan: Moving Average Outliers - Tech[nical] Rebound

Japan Fortnightly Update: Drip, Drip, Drip...

Japan: The Long and the Short of It - Recommended Portfolios

Japan: Moving Average Outliers - Market, Sectors & Stocks - Hoshizaki, Sumco & Sharp

Japan: Autumn Large Cap Results & Revision Scores Review + '4QUADrant Analysis'

ja research

ja research is an independent research platform focused exclusively on Japanese equities. Leveraging data and graphic analysis provided by Japan Analytics, we provide insights on small and medium-sized companies that have been ignored by the sell-side as well as challenging conventional wisdom on larger companies. We also offer analyst and corporate access, the latter with translation if required. 

Quantitative Analysis

MARKET COMPOSITE<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/073/799/original/2018-12-22_16-48-37.png?1545464931" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="73799"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source: Japan Analytics</div>TRADING ZONE - As of last Friday, the Japan All Market Composite has now entered a bear market, having declined by 20% from the January 23rd high if Y757t. At the close, only 8% by number and 11% by value of Japanese stocks were trading above their weighted composite of 5, 20, 60, 120, and 240-day moving averages. These were the lowest closing values since February 2016 when the All Market Composite reached a low of Y475tand  offer an entry point for a short-term trade for those happy to hold over the extended New Year Holiday period.<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/073/800/original/2018-12-22_16-49-53.png?1545465006" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="73800"></figure><div class="content-caption">
<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/073/801/original/2018-12-22_16-52-17.png?1545465147" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="73801"></figure> Source: Japan Analytics</div>BREAKOUTS -  The 'Breaking Bad' percentage reached 11% on December 4th, the tenth-lowest reading in three years bu thas yet to fall below '-15-.  Adding the Breaking Above and Breaking Below percentages together provides a more straightforward view of the 15% threshold that has marked previous short and medium-term turning points, and which again we have yet to reach.<hr> SECTORS<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/073/804/original/2018-12-22_18-10-04.png?1545469815" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="73804"></figure><div style="text-align: left;" class="content-caption">LEGEND: The 'sparklines' show the three-year trend in the weighted percentage above moving average relative to the Market Composite and the 'STDev' column is a measure of the variability of that relative measure. The table also provides averages for the breaks above and breaks below and the positive and negative 'crossovers'.</div>SECTOR BREAKDOWN - The top six sectors measured by the percentage above the weighted average of 5-240 Days are all, predictably, domestic and defensive -  Food, Beverages &amp; Tobacco, REITs, Information Technology, Internet, Media and Utilities. Equally predictable are the bottom half-dozen - Banks, Non-Bank Finance, Autos, Metals, Electrical Equipment and Chemicals. <hr>COMPANIESCOMPANY MOVING AVERAGE OUTLIERS - As with the market and sectors, out moving average outlier indicator uses a weighted sum of the share price relative to its 5-day, 20-day, 60-day, 120 day and 240-day moving averages. Extreme values are weighted sums greater than 100% and less than -100%. We would caution that this indicator is best used for timing shorter-term reversals and, in many cases, higher highs and lower lows will be seen. <figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/073/816/original/2018-12-23_15-00-13.png?1545544826" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="73816"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source: Japan Analytics</div>THE 100% CLUB - As of Friday 21st, there were 16 extreme positive outliers and 622 extreme negative outliers. The number of extreme negative outliers suggests we are a short-term bottom.<div class="content-highlight">In the DETAIL section below, we highlight the current top and bottom twenty-five larger capitalisation outliers as well as those companies that have seen the most significant positive and negative changes in their outlier percentage in the last two weeks and provide short comments on companies of particular note. </div>

MARKET COMPOSITESource: Japan AnalyticsTRADING ZONE - As of last Friday, the Japan All Market Composite has now entered a bear market, having declined by 20% from the January 23rd high if Y757t. At the close, only 8% by number and 11% by value of Japanese stocks were trading above their weighted composite of 5, 20, 60, 120, and 240-day moving averages. These were the lowest closing values since February 2016 when the All Market Composite reached a low of Y475tand  offer an entry point for a short-term trade for those happy to hold over the extended New Year Holiday period.
 Source: Japan AnalyticsBREAKOUTS -  The 'Breaking Bad' percentage reached 11% on December 4th, the tenth-lowest reading in three years bu thas yet to fall below '-15-.  Adding the Breaking Above and Breaking Below percentages together provides a more straightforward view of the 15% threshold that has marked previous short and medium-term turning points, and which again we have yet to reach. SECTORSLEGEND: The 'sparklines' show the three-year trend in the weighted percentage above moving average relative to the Market Composite and the 'STDev' column is a measure of the variability of that relative measure. The table also provides averages for the breaks above and breaks below and the positive and negative 'crossovers'.SECTOR BREAKDOWN - The top six sectors measured by the percentage above the weighted average of 5-240 Days are all, predictably, domestic and defensive -  Food, Beverages &amp; Tobacco, REITs, Information Technology, Internet, Media and Utilities. Equally predictable are the bottom half-dozen - Banks, Non-Bank Finance, Autos, Metals, Electrical Equipment and Chemicals. COMPANIESCOMPANY MOVING AVERAGE OUTLIERS - As with the market and sectors, out moving average outlier indicator uses a weighted sum of the share price relative to its 5-day, 20-day, 60-day, 120 day and 240-day moving averages. Extreme values are weighted sums greater than 100% and less than -100%. We would caution that this indicator is best used for timing shorter-term reversals and, in many cases, higher highs and lower lows will be seen. Source: Japan AnalyticsTHE 100% CLUB - As of Friday 21st, there were 16 extreme positive outliers and 622 extreme negative outliers. The number of extreme negative outliers suggests we are a short-term bottom.In the DETAIL section below, we highlight the current top and bottom twenty-five larger capitalisation outliers as well as those companies that have seen the most significant positive and negative changes in their outlier percentage in the last two weeks and provide short comments on companies of particular note. 

Japan: Moving Average Outliers - Year-End Blues