Japan Airlines: Upside to Expectations Despite A350 Loss

Japanese Airlines – ANA’s Margin Outperformance Poses Big Questions for JAL

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Founder & Managing Director, AIR Control Tower, AIR Control Tower

Neil Glynn

Founder & Managing Director, AIR Control Tower

AIR Control Tower

AIR Control Tower is an independent research and analysis platform. Its mission is to provide impactful insight and analysis across the global airline industry at a company and market level via detailed financial models to aid decision making for key stake holders at a time when risks have seldom, if ever, been higher and the global sector grapples with the imperative of funding de-carbonisation. Unique analysis forecasting global carrier-level earnings/cash flows, and restructuring/de-leveraging prospects, is designed to dynamically assess the health of the industry, predict surprises and identify potential requirements for third party support.

Insights on the global airline industry

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>JAL finishing FY24 strongly with another guidance upgrade – upgraded FY26 targets more logical in light of existing ANA targets</li>
<li>​Demand momentum particularly helpful as wages rise across Japan and ​cost control to remain impressive over FY25-FY26 as LCC growth set to dilute FSC inflation</li>
<li>​Detailed analysis of JAL’s widening margin gap to ANA suggests revenue solution required – momentum helpful and needs to be watched carefully</li>
</ul>


JAL finishing FY24 strongly with another guidance upgrade – upgraded FY26 targets more logical in light of existing ANA targets
​Demand momentum particularly helpful as wages rise across Japan and ​cost control to remain impressive over FY25-FY26 as LCC growth set to dilute FSC inflation
​Detailed analysis of JAL’s widening margin gap to ANA suggests revenue solution required – momentum helpful and needs to be watched carefully


Japan Airlines – Encouraging Lifting of Medium Term Expectations to Narrow Recovery Gap to ANA