Founder, Market Thinker

Mark Tinker

Mark Tinker has over 35 years experience as an investor, market strategist and economist. Having spent more than 20 years as a sell side strategist and being top rated on numerous occasions and surveys he moved to investment management in 2006 to run global equity portfolios in London and subsequently moved to Hong Kong in 2013 to help establish an Investment Management business for a top 20 international asset manager. He first started writing investment weeklies for his employers in 1989, developing a style characterised under the title Market Thinking and has been a regular commentator and presenter on CNBC, Bloomberg and other business channels, where his approach of rationalising market behaviour rather than making short term predictions on high frequency market data provides a welcome balance to his client audience.

Founder

Market Thinker

Making Sense of the Narrative

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>The consensus forecast for the Global Economy in 2023 is pretty clear, a peak in inflation and a sharp slowdown in GDP that will be ‘short but not painless’.</li><li>The associated view for markets, however, is more diverse and largely depends on the extent to which this economic slowdown is regarded as being ‘already in the price’.</li><li>Most analysis at least implicitly acknowledges that bear markets tend to have two phases; the first is the de-rating phase associated with higher interest rates and a tightening of monetary policy (arguably what we have just seen in 2022), while the second phase is the credit cycle, where the economic impacts of the tightening of policy feed through into lower earnings and thus a second round of weakness.</li></ul>

The consensus forecast for the Global Economy in 2023 is pretty clear, a peak in inflation and a sharp slowdown in GDP that will be ‘short but not painless’.The associated view for markets, however, is more diverse and largely depends on the extent to which this economic slowdown is regarded as being ‘already in the price’.Most analysis at least implicitly acknowledges that bear markets tend to have two phases; the first is the de-rating phase associated with higher interest rates and a tightening of monetary policy (arguably what we have just seen in 2022), while the second phase is the credit cycle, where the economic impacts of the tightening of policy feed through into lower earnings and thus a second round of weakness.

January Market Thinking