Cross-Asset Liquidity Strategist, CrossBorder Capital

Michael J. Howell

CrossBorder Capital an investment advisory firm specialising in macro-investing. Founded in 1996 with an international client base, CrossBorder focuses on monitoring and understanding global liquidity and capital flows. Our proprietary databases (available to clients) cover 80 countries in depth from 1980 onwards. We take a systematic quantitative methodology that uses this data with AI models to predict financial market movements. The efficacy of our data has been independently verified, and we have an associated but separate asset management division.

Cross-Asset Liquidity Strategist

Shape of Recovery: Square Root & Hockey Stick

Handicapping the Odds of A V-Shaped Recovery

Implementing Research Using Alt Data & AI

CrossBorder Capital

CrossBorder Capital is a London-based independent investment advisory firm. Founded in 1996, it exploits a gap in the investment arena by focusing on Central bank liquidity. 

It specialises in the monitoring and analysis of global liquidity flows - an important determinant of asset prices, from currencies through to bonds, equities and real estate.

CrossBorder Capital implements its investment strategy and currently manages over US$ 350m.


Cross Asset Strategy

Multiple Countries / Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>V-shaped rebound confirmed. Global Liquidity Index (GLI) rises again to 85.1 (‘normal’ range 0-100). In US$ terms Global Liquidity could soar by 30-40% in 2020 to some US$190 trillion</li>
<li>
US Fed Liquidity Index hits 90.3 and Balance Sheet likely to test US$10 trillion in 2020</li>
<li>This will push the equity/ liquidity ratio down to near historic lows at 0.37 times. It shows how skewed portfolios are towards ‘safety’ and by corollary by how much investors’ mood is depressed</li>
<li>
Yield curves have further to steepen. US curve could add 150bp of steepening
</li>
<li>
Capital flows into US dollar show clear signs of rolling over. Gold/ Euro attractive</li>
</ul>


V-shaped rebound confirmed. Global Liquidity Index (GLI) rises again to 85.1 (‘normal’ range 0-100). In US$ terms Global Liquidity could soar by 30-40% in 2020 to some US$190 trillion

US Fed Liquidity Index hits 90.3 and Balance Sheet likely to test US$10 trillion in 2020
This will push the equity/ liquidity ratio down to near historic lows at 0.37 times. It shows how skewed portfolios are towards ‘safety’ and by corollary by how much investors’ mood is depressed

Yield curves have further to steepen. US curve could add 150bp of steepening


Capital flows into US dollar show clear signs of rolling over. Gold/ Euro attractive


iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT US)

It’s A Big, Beautiful ‘V’