Economist, Centennial Asia Advisors

Nicholas Chia

Centennial Asia Advisors deliver timely and accurate economic and political analysis to investors, focused on anticipating key turning points that affect the client’s interests in the Asia-Pacific region. Clients include public agencies and central banks, as well as fund managers and investment banks. The company draws strength from its flexibility to tailor products to fit client’s specific interests. It provides detailed macro-economic forecasts, scenario analysis and timely assessments of how specific major economic and political developments may affect a client’s areas of interest. At Centennial Asia Advisors, we tell it like it is. We have no vested interests, no need for a China wall, and no reason to skew our outlook any other way.

Economist

Indonesia Budget 2022: Ambitious Fiscal Consolidation Plans Hinge On Growth Revival

Indonesia: 2024 Presidential Race Kicks Off In Earnest

Indonesia: Economy Nears A "New Normal" State of Equilibrium

Indonesia: The Recovery Gains Momentum in April

Centennial Asia Advisors

At Centennial Asia Advisors, we tell it like it is. We have no vested interests, no need for a China wall, and no reason to skew our outlook any other way. With over 30 years experience covering Asia’s political economy, you can be sure our conclusions and analyses are based on the unadulterated facts. Through years of fine-tuning our research methodologies, we deliver a quality of macroeconomic analysis few other houses can match.

Centennial Asia Advisors is an independent research and advisory firm that works with governments, multilateral institutions, financial firms and leading MNCs.

Economic Policy and Strategic Advisors

Macroeconomics

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<strong>GDP posted the first y/y expansion in 5 quarters (+7.1%) (1Q21: -0.7%).</strong> The upturn in investments does provide some room for optimism, though the extension of the mobility curbs will rein in the recovery momentum in 3Q21.</li>
<li>
<strong>There is some concern of fiscal slippage</strong> as Covid-19-induced spending pressures grow. The government could defer the re-imposition of the 3% fiscal deficit cap by 2024, as opposed to the previous deadline of 2023. The Jokowi administration and the credible finance minister Sri Mulyani is unlikely to leave the issue, which can easily become a political hot potato, to the next administration.</li>
</ul>



GDP posted the first y/y expansion in 5 quarters (+7.1%) (1Q21: -0.7%). The upturn in investments does provide some room for optimism, though the extension of the mobility curbs will rein in the recovery momentum in 3Q21.

There is some concern of fiscal slippage as Covid-19-induced spending pressures grow. The government could defer the re-imposition of the 3% fiscal deficit cap by 2024, as opposed to the previous deadline of 2023. The Jokowi administration and the credible finance minister Sri Mulyani is unlikely to leave the issue, which can easily become a political hot potato, to the next administration.


Investment Upturn A Cause For Cautious Optimism; Fiscal Cap May Only Kick Back In From 2024